Three decades on

Three months of protests,bloodshed and stalled peace deals in Yemen could soon come to a close as President Saleh readies to pen the agreement that will transfer power from his hands to the opposition. The terms of his exit ensure that actions committed during his 32-year,iron-fisted rule remain immune from prosecution. The challenge now falls upon the opposition the Joint Meeting Parties to ready for elections in 60 days.

It is difficult to picture a Yemen without Saleh,but the groundwork to his departure has been worked upon since November 2005. It is then that the Joint Meeting Parties,a mosaic of political groups and factions composed of socialists,Nasserists,Zaydi intellectuals and Islamists formally entered the political arena. Now,during this transitory phase,it is they who will lead. But the political landscape they will preside over is volatile and wrought with tribal allegiances that could trump parliamentary politics. Salehs policy has often been one of divide-and-rule,through which he has alienated both Yemens north and its south. And,besides the growing presence of the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula AQAP franchise,Yemen faces an existentialist dilemma: the southern secessionist movement and the northern Houthi civil war. The JMPs first task will be to bring these warring factions to the table. They have in the past displayed willingness to talk to factions within the JMP.

In his last speech,Saleh raised the prospect of a worsened Yemen upon his departure as the AQAP threat looms. Naturally AQAPs presence is worrying and resources that have been used to fight the insurgencies will need to be better appropriated. Under Salehs rule,the east of the country,AQAPs sanctuary was virtually unpatrolled. This needs to change for Yemens,and the worlds,security.