Remember certainties

Nothing is settled yet,except the things that are. Yes,we might not know the final shape that Indias next government will take. But that uncertainty should be moderated by recognition of all the things that we know and can continue to be certain about. Theres little of that,however,in the responses that well have to endure till counting day and,if unlucky,beyond particularly from those claiming to speak for the business world. If the last year hasnt al-ready brought home to the rational observer that imputing to the stockmarket or the corporate world,as interpreted by the business media,a certain ineffable wisdom is a doubtful endeavour,the last few days should have. We are told continually that first,exit polls predict a hung parliament,and second,that that means there are concerns about the stability of a government. Take these one at a time.

Exit polls in India have a particularly undistinguished history. As do opinion polls in general. This shouldnt reflect on Indias pollsters: they are mostly intelligent,hard-working people. Nevertheless: they fail much more often than not. There are many reasons for this: firstly,modern political opinion polls,with theory forged on simple binary races,or small-electorate elections,have real trouble scaling up to the complexity of an Indian general election. The many intuitions that political observers take for granted how party-hopping candidates matter; how regional permutations of caste or ethnicity alter the voteshare-to-seats equation are so difficult to model that the final numbers were given simply dont reflect them. Then,exit pollsters cant chase down voters and force them to answer,they wait for voters to come to them,and so re-sults are notoriously biased towards the upper-end of class and income spectrums. But we arent allowed to discuss the inner workings of the pollsters assumptions the way we can discuss those underlying other such claims. Seen that way,theyre actually more unreliable than drawing-room chitchat,mimicking the taste of a meal without the nutrition. Talking points,sure but why assume they mean more?

But that isnt where this faulty logic stops. It continues,to claim that numbers so presented somehow mean concerns about governmental stability. Lets make one thing clear: what corporate India should be concerned about is not governmental stability,but policy stability. And there is little reason to think that that is under threat.

India is in a perilous place,fiscally; external conditions are difficult; thus,a new governments priorities and constraints are already set,and its policy path similarly discernible.