Morgan Stanley expects the Reserve Bank of India to hold rates steady on Tuesday,contrary to widespread expectations of a 25 basis points rate cut.
The investment bank says the consumer price index CPI remains the 8220;most important measure8221; compared to the wholesale price index WPI.
CPI has remained high,leading to 8220;elevated and sticky inflation expectations,8221; even as consumer prices could moderate going forward,Morgan Stanley says in a report dated Thursday.
High CPI will also adversely impact deposit growth and lead to high gold imports,the investment bank adds.
8220;Hence,we believe policy rate cuts will likely not be effective until we see meaningful deceleration in CPI inflation and improvement in deposit growth,8221; Morgan Stanley says.