Pre-Budget,UPA nervous about numbers

An undercurrent of caution marks government preparations for the Budget Session of Parliament,scheduled to get underway from February 22.

Though there is no threat to the Government,the numbers in the Lok Sabha are too close to inspire the government to take the risk of pushing through any reform Bill. Accordingly,the fate of three important fiscal bills,which had been stalled by the Left during UPA I,remains uncertain. These are the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority PFRDA Bill,Insurance Bill and Banking Regulation Amendment Bill. The Pension Bill has the potential to irk two important UPA partners,Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee and DMK chief M Karunanidhi,who are wary of upsetting trade unions in their states,West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

Sources said there is a conscious effort to ensure that the Presidential Address to the joint session of Parliament or the subsequent official business of Parliament do not contain anything which may evoke an extreme response from a UPA partner or a supporting party. There is no threat to the government,but the economic reform process is unlikely to progress.

The current rumblings in the Samajwadi Party are likely to result in a change of the party stance towards the Congress. With Amar Singh out,the SP is expected to distance itself more from the Congress. Singh was instrumental in getting the SP on board in support of the Indo-US nuclear deal and later got the party support for Manmohan Singh to form his government again last year.

For the record,the UPA commands the support of 314 members in the Lok Sabha,but this figure can prove dicey in case the government is faced with a real roadblock. Of these,50 belong to four parties SP 22,BSP 21,RJD 4 and JD-S 3 which are outside the UPA fold. They might have promptly dispatched letters of support for Manmohan Singh to the Rashtrapati Bhawan last May,but they can withdraw support with equal swiftness. This leaves the Congress-led Government with just 265 members,not enough to stay afloat.

Ironically,the Congress is competing for political space with all its outside supporters the SP and BSP in UP,RJD in Bihar and JDS in Karnataka. They might have initially supported Manmohan Singh,but seeing Congress attempts to edge them out of their home turfs,they would not miss any opportunity to strike at the party.

The Congress can enlist the support from smaller parties and independents,or explore the possibility of reaching out to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Orissa counterpart Naveen Patnaik. Both Nitish and Naveen were on the Congress radar as potential allies in the partys in-house calculations ahead of last Lok Sabha polls. Even now,the Congress seems to handle them with care while it opposes them in the states.

Story continues below this ad

The Government has the option of reaching out to the opposition BJP to push the reform process through. The BJP has publicly offered to back the PFRDA Bill,provided the Government makes a forward move. But then,the question is would the Government take the risk of upsetting its own allies?