Poverty line fluctuates with conflicting data

The Planning Commission in 2004-05 had said that 28.5 per cent of the countrys population was poor. The estimate was based on a National Sample Survey Organisation NSSO surveys finding which said an income of Rs 560 per month for urban families was enough to purchase 2,100 calories of nutrition and an income of Rs 368 per month was enough to purchase 2,400 calories of nutrition in rural areas. However,different government bodies disputed the plan panels estimate. In 2007,the Arjun Sengupta committee had said that 77 per cent of Indias population was living below the poverty line,earning less than Rs 20 per day.

In June 2009,a rural development ministry-sponsored committee headed by N C Saxena to fix criteria for the Below Poverty Line survey in India had estimated that 50 per cent of Indians were poor. The Saxena Committees estimate matched the number of BPL ration cards issued so far 10.86 crore households. As per the estimate,10.87 crore households will have to be issued cards as per the new estimation,starting January 2010.

In the backdrop of the findings of these committees and the UPA governments pledge to give a legal guarantee of food for everyone,Tendulkar was asked to determine the number of poor in India based on the new nutritional realities of the country. Abhijit Sen,the commission member in-charge of food,had advocated that the new estimation methodology be based on income. In line with the changing poverty estimates,the figures for annual subsidy requirement too changed. According to official estimates,10.86 crore families currently hold BPL cards with each family drawing 25-kg foodgrains per month entailing a subsidy of about Rs 28,890.56 crore. If the Saxena Committees findings were factored in,then nearly 10.87 crore families would mean a government subsidy of nearly Rs 36,812.62 crore. And now with Tendulkar pegging BPL families at 8.32 crore,the subsidy bill would be nearly Rs 47,917.22 crore. The Planning Commission has estimated the number of persons below the poverty line at 36 per cent in 1993-94,which declined to 27. 5 per cent in 2004-05. The panel reasons that state-wise there were large variations and if the 2009 population estimates were accepted the total number of poor families would come down to 5.91 crore. This is where the states have a problem and they have already made representations for the acceptance of the increased number of BPL families.