Operation over

Israels invasion of Gaza hasnt worked. What next?

Were all confused. Operation Cast Lead was launched in order to ensure Hamas attacks on Israel would stop permanently and if not,at least Israels military might would be established. However,as Cast Lead comes to an end,Hamas has neither given up armed resistance nor has it been defeated. In fact it seems that Gazans have come to look upon Hamas as the sole protector of their identity and the chief proponent of their cause. What the operation has done is that it has allowed a terrorist outfit with a fundamentalist ideology,de facto recognition as the voice of the Palestinian people.

Operation Cast Lead bears striking resemblance to Operations Rainbow (2004),Autumn Clouds (2006),Hot Winter (2008). All these operations had the unstated aim of ensuring Gazan territory was ruled by an authority approved of by Israel and the West,the obvious choice being the Fatah party under Mahmoud Abbas. Operation Cast Lead has not only ensured that Abbas appears as a weak incapable leader of Palestine,one who has sold out to the West; it has also managed to undermine the authority of moderate Arab regimes. Powers such as Egypt,Jordan and Saudi Arabia are supposed to act as a check on Iran; however their authority and unity now appears to be challenged.

Further,Cast Lead has built up the importance of Hamas such that it is now in a position to fight for further legitimacy. As it stands today,Hamas is bargaining over ceasefire terms,a situation the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) would not have imagined: over an all-access pass for Gazans through all border crossings and the removal of the Israeli security fences. This is an unfortunate development for both Israel and the Palestinians. The aim of the creation of an independent Gaza and West Bank was to allow for a slow transition of power from Israel to the Palestinian Authority. This aspiration was crushed following the victory of Hamas in 2006. Cast Lead has driven a further wedge into any such development; the demands for an all access pass will only prevent a recognised de jure Palestinian state. This pass is unlikely to materialise,but simply the fact that it is being considered is bad enough.

A Hamas-ruled Palestine would be an ultra-radical,Islamist state,which would in no way benefit its people. Yes,Hamas has succeeded in basic infrastructure development; but it has failed to provide for the people. Gaza is incapable of feeding its own population,it is heavily dependent of food aid,and further Hamas rule will only make the situation worse.

The rocket fire is unlikely to stop,and therefore basic necessities will continue to be ill-provided. History has indicated that Hamas will not,and cannot ideologically give up their ambitions of armed resistance. A ceasefire that will be negotiated will not result in anything more than what it is a cessation in firing. This ceasefire can once again be broken as it has been over the past 8 years. The question is thus: what next?

An apt answer in the present climate would be adequate leadership not solely from Palestine,but from Israel as well. Contrary to what was hoped by the Israeli leadership,sentiment on the streets of Israel appears to want this operation to end. The upcoming Israeli elections will play a major role in the course of the peace process.

For Palestine the issue is far more severe. Due to Operation Cast Lead,the election for the Palestinian Authority was foregone. Hamas and some legal experts have questioned Abbas ability to remain in office. Since his tenure finished on the 9th Hamas has argued that the PA has no effective authority,leaving Hamas as the sole elected representative in Palestine. Statements from Livni,Olmert,Barak all indicated that the possibility of Hamas removal was high; however this has not materialised. The outcome is not what the Israeli military establishment has imagined or planned for,in fact,it appears to be the opposite. There is now a power vacuum in the two strips of Palestine,that both Fatah and Hamas will try to fill. Unless the international community,with the participation of the US,do not act soon the result will be a failure and crisis in leadership in Gaza that will inevitably flow into the West Bank.

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Further,there is the potential risk of a further increase in violence as rockets are being launched from the northern part of Israel: this could potentially be Hizbollah. Can Israel handle two fronts? Operation Cast Lead must end if it is avoid another 2006 embarrassment akin to the Lebanon war.

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