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Number theory

Congress calls its allies bluff by announcing state-level ties. Will it work?

The Congress partys decision to limit its electoral alliances to the state level is unsurprising. In recent weeks it has been publicly pressured by allies like the NCP and the Samajwadi Party to accommodate their candidates for general election. In stating its status as the national party leading the UPA coalition,it would obviously be aiming to call the bluff of its over-assertive alliance partners. The move could also increase the space for negotiations with new allies after the elections,if the Congress indeed happens to be in a position to form the next government in New Delhi. However,it is not clear whether the privileging of state-level alliances over the ruling coalitions national identity would impact the nature of the UPA in the next Lok Sabha. It is certainly a curious development.

After the Congress Working Committee meeting on Thursday,party general secretary Janardhan Dwivedis explanation was telling: An alliance is basically a game of numbers. It depends on who gets how many seats. This will be clear only after the elections. Clearly the Congress is seeking a clean plate. It does not want to be caught in negotiations with allies bargaining on the basis of their respective performances in 2004. One of the most public points of contention with the SP,for instance,is the Rampur seat in Uttar Pradesh. The SP claims it for having won it in 2004,and the Congress,whose candidate held it earlier,says it stands a good chance this time,and so should contest it. With the new formulation,the Congress can also refuse to engage with NCP tricks like calling for Sharad Pawar to be declared a prime ministerial candidate,or to be accommodated in seat-sharing arrangements in states like Kerala where it does not mark any significant presence.

But Dwivedis explanation also alludes to the underlying reality of these elections: that the race is on between the BJP and the Congress; each wants to register a larger presence in the next Lok Sabha,because the party that gets more seats is likely to be the core around which smaller parties coalesce for a ruling arrangement. And conversely,were the two national parties to fall substantially short of accounting for 300 MPs together,a third front government could be viable. The game of numbers has only just begun.

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