NDA split: Caste equations may benefit RJD,Congress

Though Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has asked the JDU to join the secular front,Nitish Kumar may tread cautiously as taking a stand against Narendra Modi may not be enough to attract minority voters. The JDU has criticised the UPA government for step-motherly treatment towards Bihar,and hence,is likely to maintain distance from the Congress in the pre-poll scenario.

Moreover,not everyone in the party seems happy with the split. Around 200 JDU workers who had gathered at party office here Sunday seemed unhappy over snapping ties with the BJP. A party worker told a JDU leader: Why have we woken up now? Go to the people,they will tell you that we have committed a hara-kiri.

The BJP can hope to get a major chunk of the upper caste votes,especially those of the Bhumihars. At the same time,it can even divide JDUs EBC-OBC votes.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad is reportedly worried that Nitish will now woo his Muslim constituency. After all,Nitish severed tied with the BJP invoking Modis name. On Sunday,Lalu said,What message is Nitish trying to give by snapping ties with the BJP now? Why didnt he do so after the 2002 Godhra riots? Nitish is in fools paradise if he thinks this will win over Muslims. Lalu has recently tasted success with his partys victory in the Maharajganj bypoll. Lalu will try to woo the upper caste. Even if a percentage of Muslim voters turn away from him,Lalu will try to split Nitishs EBC-OBC votes, said a political analyst.

In such a scenario,it will suit the Congress if Bihar goes the UP way during the 2014 polls. Who knows Lalu and Nitish may find themselves on the same side if the NDA under Modi does not get the numbers and the UPA succeeds in cobbling together several parties in the name of secularism, said a political columnist.