Monsoon forecast down to 87%

Its official now. Two consecutive weeks of dry spell have forced the Indian Meteorological Department to make another downward revision in its long-term monsoon forecast....

Its official now. Two consecutive weeks of dry spell have forced the Indian Meteorological Department to make another downward revision in its long-term monsoon forecast for the country,from the 93 per cent it had predicted in the last week of June to 87 per cent. The overall rainfall in the worst drought year in the past two decades in 2002 was 81 per cent of the long period average.

IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi told The Indian Express that the first 10 days of this month had been specially disappointing for the monsoon,making this downward revision necessary.

There has been a prolonged dry spell since July 29. Some revival is being seen today with Madhya Pradesh,Uttar Pradesh and Orissa getting rains. But clearly the rainfall is not according to our expectations. The rainfall distribution has also been skewed, he said.

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The IMD now says that August,which was earlier predicted to get 101 per cent rainfall,would have to settle for only 90 per cent rains. Tyagi said the next one week was going to be extremely crucial for the monsoon this season.

India receives an average of 89 cm rainfall in the four-month monsoon season spreading from June to September,which is extremely vital for the rain-dependent agricultural economy for the country. In May,IMD had predicted 96 per cent rainfall in this four-month period and downgraded it to 93 per cent in June.