Jagan in jail,party feels support waning

Has not encouraged second rung leadership in YSR Congress Party to steer it in his absence

In spite of inflicting a crushing defeat on the Congress in the bypolls in which YSR Congress Party won 15 of the 18 Assembly seats and the lone Lok Sabha seat,the party is wary of popular support waning by 2014 general elections. There are two main reasons why even after its victory and challenging the Congress that no one can stop Jagan Mohan Reddy from becoming the chief minister in 2014,the party is treading cautiously.

The first reason is,with Jagan in jail,he and his family feel that they might lose the support base that he has so meticulously cultivated over two years. The second reason is,since only he commands such huge support and popularity,Jagan has not encouraged a second rung leadership in the party which will steer the YSRCP in his absence.

Although his mother Y S Vijayalakshmi and sister Y S Sharmila campaigned in the bypolls and are meeting people by organising public meetings,many in the party feel that without Jagan the gains may be squandered away. It is important that he is seen in public, one leader says.

Vijayalakshmi,who is handling party matters in the absence of her son and is aided by former Congress leaders who have joined the party recently,is desperate to get Jagan released from jail so that he prepares the YSRCP for the 2014 elections. She may not be able to take the party forward single-handedly as Jagan does. They are cautious that former Congressmen will hijack and take advantage of the popularity of YSRCP. His sister Sharmila can take the mantle but she is a novice. Short-term gains are assured for the party due to Jagans popularity,but his absence may not augur well for the partys future, says a former TDP leader who joined YSRCP just before Jagans arrest. The party is also hesitant to involve Sharmila too much as her evangelist-husband Anil Kumar may bring negative publicity.

With Jagan in jail,all work and decision-making have come to a grinding halt. He has been unable to decide whether to support or oppose UPAs Presidential candidate Pranab Mukherjee. Supporting Mukherjee may send a wrong message within the YSRCP,but opposing may mean rubbing the Congress the wrong way,especially when Jagan is trying hard to extricate himself from the CBI case.

Many YSRCP leaders are wondering if Jagan will be forced to make a deal with the Congress to go slow on the CBI investigation in return for assuring support.

Honorary president of YSRCP Vijayalakshmi recently sought an appointment with Congress president Sonia Gandhi whom she accuses of targeting her son with a CBI investigation. While Vijayalakshmi was unable to meet Sonia,she spoke to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,and announced that YSRCP is not interested in toppling the Congress government in Andhra Pradesh.

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Party spokesperson Ambati Rambabu says,Vijayamma wants to inform the Congress and PM what the CBI is doing here. It has launched a witch-hunt and has put Jagan in jail without proof of any wrongdoing. Jagan will continue to guide the party and there are leaders like Vijayamma who will take the party forward.

There is already talk of Jagan growing cold without his odarpu yatra and constant media coverage about the CBI case and his impending arrest. Jagans court appearances,which provided publicity,have been curtailed due to video-conferences with courts from the jail itself.