It’s official: Monsoon will be deficient

In April,the Met department had announced the rainfall this monsoon to be around 99 per cent only to revise it downward to 96 per cent in June. The Prime Minister’s Office last month had indicated the rainfall could slip to about 92 per cent.

The Sunday Express had first reported that the overall monsoon rainfall this year to be below 90 per cent at around 85 per cent on July 29. In fact,it was this re-assessment,informally provided to the government by the weather officials,that got the government pressing into operation contingency plans in all the vulnerable regions.

The chances of a normal monsoon forecast initially came under doubt when June witnessed 29 per cent deficiency. The situation was further compounded by the fact that July rainfall fell short by about 13 per cent at 87 per cent of the average despite Met department’s forecast of 98 per cent rainfall in the second month.

This cumulatively resulted into the first half of monsoon (June-July) remaining deficient by about 19 per cent at 81 per cent of the average for this period.

The revised forecast on Thursday,however,maintained its earlier forecast of normal rainfall in August at 96 per cent. However,September is slated to witness less than normal rainfall. Accordingly,the Met department projected that the overall monsoon rainfall during the second half of the season will be “below normal” at 91 per cent of normal with a model error of plus or minus eight per cent.

The Empowered Group of Ministers on drought has subsequently met and announced a slew of measures to tackle the developing situation. EGoM members — Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar and Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh — have started visiting states like Karnataka,Maharashtra,Gujarat and Rajasthan to coordinate relief efforts.

The Met department reasoned the build up of El Nino conditions in last two weeks that is expected to result into a weak to moderate El Nino for the remaining two months of the monsoon as the reason adversely impacting the overall rainfall.