Doubtful again

U-turn on Sarabjit or miscommunication? Pakistans internal crisis encourages uncertainty

U-turn on Sarabjit or miscommunication? Pakistans internal crisis encourages uncertainty

The clarification by the Pakistan government that the Indian prisoner to be released is not Sarabjit Singh but Surjeet Singh disappointed one family even as it brought hope to another. Whether it was indeed a U-turn,or a genuine communication error,much of the confusion was generated because it took the Pakistan government an inexplicably long time to issue its clarification. But scepticism and suspicion is also stoked by Pakistans internal predicament. In a situation where pulls and tugs from different directions preclude a coherent centre of authority,it may become difficult to separate an honest mistake from a calculated step backwards on the release of Sarabjit,in a Pakistani jail since 1990 on charges of involvement in bomb blasts in Lahore and Multan.

Most recently,the triangulated rivalry between the civilian government,the military and the judiciary in Pakistan nearly spun out of control when Yousuf Raza Gilani was disqualified from the parliament and an arrest warrant issued against his partys first choice for a prime ministerial successor. Although Zardari has overseen Pakistans first transition from one elected government to another,the process of democratic consolidation once again looks under siege. Pakistans internal unravelling has also undermined the confidence that had been generated in prospects of improvement in Indo-Pak relations. Together,Gilani and Zardari played a pivotal role in bringing about a thaw in the post-26/11 freeze. The trust deficit between Delhi and Islamabad was being gradually reduced,culminating in bold moves towards bilateral economic engagement. There has been a reversal of that pattern of late,and a return to an older uncertainty and unpredictability.

The Siachen and Sir Creek talks ended with no resolution. Nor was the liberalised visa regime inked last month. Now,the Surjeet-Sarabjit episode appears to fit into the same pattern. It would be unfortunate if,in the process,long-term faith in incremental progress in India-Pak relations is dented again.