New banks could inject vitality and vigour in a stressed yet critical sector
The level of gross non-performing assets or bad loans in the banking system is expected to spike to 4.4 per cent by the financial year 2014-15,from the current 3.9 per cent,according to an analysis by Standards amp; Poors. At the same time,the additional funding requirement for the sector is expected to rise to Rs 2,80,000 crore in another five years. The aggregate profitability of the sector has correspondingly dipped below the long-term trend. Taken together,the numbers mean the sector would be stressed for funds to shore up its capital base and lending books.
With their capital unconstrained,unlike the existing banks,the new banks will be able to finance projects far more aggressively. For instance,banks decide on their lending quota for each sector for each year as a percentage of their previous years balance sheet. But because of the NPAs,their relatively low capital base and existing exposure,they often finish their quota within a week of the beginning of the new financial year. This means applicants have to ride out the year in wait,unless they queue up early. In this scenario,new banks can provide the headroom for lending that existing banks cannot. While the bank stocks have taken a battering,the enthusiasm for new licences remains. The developments in the sector promise to reset the board,and bring about a structural change in the long term.