Amma in the hills,ADMK in the woods

It was on May 30 that she flew to the Kodanadu estate,an over 800-acre property owned by Jayalalithaa and her aide Sasikala. Her ‘vacation’,otherwise a periodical trip,this time was termed an exile from active politics.

A sprawling property with a huge building reportedly constructed as per vaastu,the estate is open only to a chosen few. In fact,there was a controversy some time ago over restriction on the movement of local villagers through it. The last time public (and local DMK men) went in was two years ago when the district administration broke open its locks to inspect the building,which allegedly violated norms.

While she was ensconced there,Jayalalithaa called for boycott of Assembly bypolls,appealing to the public to follow suit. With allies PMK and MDMK on board,she calculated a significant fall in polling percentage. However,again the AIADMK read the situation wrong,losing both the cause and precious political space. With the Communists refusing to toe her unilateral decision,the DMDK gained from the AIADMK absence while the DMK-Congress alliance wafted home comfortably. In a party like the AIADMK where there is no number two,or even a three or four,her absence from the state capital is being felt even as the party gives numerous calls for mass protests. Political observers,in fact,see it as one of the leanest times of the party,accentuated by the longest “break” Jayalalithaa has taken.

According to her supporters,however,writing off the party or its leader based on a few recent setbacks is too simplistic a view. The 500-km distance of the Kodanadu estate from the state capital,according to them,isn’t responsible either for the party’s poor performance or its understanding of the present ground situation.

“When out of power,there is no difference for a party functionary if the leader is in the capital or in the districts. It is not a difficult task to coordinate activities in this new age of communication,” says an AIADMK leader from the districts.

Many leaders also refuse to accept that the party is facing a crisis,which first began with the 2004 election when its alliance lost all 39 Lok Sabha seats.

“It is a misinterpretation of facts that the AIADMK suffered in the last elections. While we admit being trounced in 2004 when we lost all seats and that too by huge margins,this time we won nine seats and the difference between us and the DMK in the total vote count is only 15 lakhs. One should also calculate the amount of money they spent,” the party leader argues.

Now,the AIADMK is resting its hopes on another round of bypolls,this time to vacant seats in local bodies across the state,scheduled in October. Moving fast,Jayalalithaa has already announced the first list of candidates,interestingly,without apparently consulting allies PMK or MDMK. At present,she is scrutinising the names,says a party senior,at the estate.

The party is hoping to steal a march over the DMK with two emotive issues on top of the state’s political agenda: the Mullaperiyar dam and the situation of Lankan Tamils. However,senior party members admit in private that winning those elections may not be as easy as the AIADMK imagines. As for Jayalalithaa,nobody has any answers for when she will return to Chennai. Some say she will do so after Sani Peyarchi,the transit of Saturn,on September 26. A staunch believer in astrology,Jayalalithaa is said to be expecting some drastic change in the near future that would be in her favour.

Others talk of plans of a yagna,though again till the word comes from behind the walls of the Kodanadu estate,there are few willing to go on record.