Weakened, but still going strong

There has been a fair amount of hand-wringing since the nation8217;s intelligence community surveyed the world of 2025: America losing dominance; China and India rising; fierce competition for water, food and energy; increased danger that terrorists will get a nuclear weapon. That8217;s all sobering. But the headlines from 8220;Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,8221; published by the National Intelligence Council, are not the whole story. President-elect Barack Obama is inheriting a world that is more complicated and more frightening than the one George W. Bush found in 2001. But while the trends may be apparent, the end results are not inevitable. Decisions Obama and other leaders make will matter more. Take the assertion that the world is on a path to a multipolar system with China, India and Russia plus various businesses, tribes, religious groups 8212; even criminal networks 8212; vying for influence. Commentators have been predicting this dreaded multipolarity since the end of the Cold War. And Vice President Dick Cheney and former Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz notably vowed to do everything they could to head it off8230;

That arrogance and bullheadedness has instead weakened this country 8212; creating new enemies and making it harder to win cooperation8230; If there is one clear lesson from the last eight years, it is that bullying other countries, and jockeying for zero-sum gains doesn8217;t work. It also is the new conventional wisdom that this will be the century of China or India.

But both face serious economic, demographic and other challenges 8212; including the threat of terrorism, as the Mumbai attacks so tragically demonstrated. A relative decline in power also does not mean that the US will not remain powerful. The US can and must continue to lead8230; Giving rising powers a bigger role could help persuade them to take more responsibility8230;

From a leader in 8216;The International Herald Tribune8217;