UP8217;s message 8211; Enough is enough

Kargil was not an issue in UP, nor was Ayodhya. Sonia Gandhi8217;s resounding victory from Amethi proved that her origin was not a hurdle in her way to Parliament.People expressed their anguish at inactive MPs and an equally inert State Government.

Atal Behari Vajpayee might have been a big crowd-puller elsewhere in the country but poor turnouts at his public meetings during the last phase of polling in UP, were a pointer to the fact that people were thoroughly bored with the same rhetoric.

BJP8217;s pathetic performance 8212; 29 compared to 57 last time 8212; is being attributed to the people8217;s anger at functioning of the BJP-led Government in the State, a churning in caste combinations in the State and, of course, to State BJP leaders working at cross-purposes, targeting their own colleagues than the rivals.

The BJP which figured either as a winner or as runner-up in all but four constituencies it contested in 1998, was out of the contest in 17 out of the 80 constituencies it contested this time. An assembly segment-wise analysis of election results show that it led only in 115 out of the 425 segments, a poor third behind BSP 132 and SP 123 . Congress and its ally,Rashtriya Lok Dal led in 45 Assembly segments.

Perhaps for the first time in UP8217;s electoral history, an unprecedented consolidation of various backward castes was witnessed. Lodhs and Kurmis, the two dominant castes who always opposed the militant backward caste, Yadavs, seemed to have voted together this time. The reason: a feeling that their leader Kalyan Singh was being humiliated by the BJP high command at the instance of the State party leaders.

Nothing else explains the drubbing BJP received in constituencies where Lodhs and Kurmis have significant presence. The party which held all the four seats in Bundelkhand region since 1991, was completely wiped out this time with BSP 3 and Congress 1 sharing the spoils.

The BJP candidates emerged winners in 17 out of 20 seats in Western U.P. in 1998 but managed to win only seven this time. The party8217;s expelled MP, Sakshi Maharaj8217;s campaign in favour of the SP candidates, helped the latter wrest as many as six seats from the BJP. Constituencies likeEtah, Ferozabad, Agra, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar and Saharanpur with significant presence of Jats and OBCs, which it held since 1991, were all lost this time, most of them because of Sakshi8217;s campaign.

Similarly, a section of upper caste supporters of the BJP also deserted it. 8220;In a number of constituencies like Sultanpur, upper castes voted for the BSP. The polarisation against the BJP was so intense that despite a three-way division of the anti-BJP vote, the ruling party candidate was humbled,8221; says A.K. Mishra, a political analyst. BJP general secretary K.N. Govindacharya agrees comparing the anti-BJP sentiments witnessed this time with the anti-Congressism prevailing in the country three decades ago.

This was the reason for the BJP8217;s downfall in upper-caste dominated Central UP where the BJP8217;s tally of 10 seats each in the 1996 and 1998 elections was reduced to two. The spoils were equally divided between the BSP, SP and the Congress. Significantly, the Congress which had failed to win a single seat inUttar Pradesh in the last election, managed to win 10 this time.

An intense power struggle between State BJP leaders, especially party8217;s State unit president Rajnath Singh and Chief Minister Kalyan Singh, vertically divided the entire party on caste lines. A virulent campaign by party leaders demanding Kalyan8217;s removal and the latter8217;s open expression of his hurt, dissuaded his backward-caste supporters from voting for the BJP.

The signals emanating from the Chief Minister8217;s residence were so loud and clear that his son Rajvir Singh, opposed the official BJP nominee from his home district Aligarh, Sheela Gautam. She was so disturbed over the 8220;sabotage8221; that she wrote to the Election Commission on the 8220;safety of ballot boxes.8221;

Kalyan8217;s ministerial colleagues, Jitendra Jaiswal alias Pappu and his close associate Anand Sharma openly campaigned for Samajwadi Party candidates in Gorakhpur and Padrauna.

Ajeet Singh, a BJP member of Legislative Council, known more for his criminal activities andproximity to Kalyan than for his political acumen, was so enraged at being denied a ticket from Unnao that he openly opposed the official nominee Devibux Singh. Devibux retaliated by rallying his supporters to oppose the BJP candidate from neighbouring Mohanlalganj constituency, Purnima Varma, a Kalyan loyalist. The result: Both Varma and Singh lost. And so did the BJP since similar stories were repeated in almost three-fourth of the constituencies in the State.