Timing is all

The only faintly surprising aspect of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf8217;s recent exertions towards a referendum is the timeframe he h...

April 8, 2002 12:00 AM IST

4 min read

The only faintly surprising aspect of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf8217;s recent exertions towards a referendum is the timeframe he has in mind. On Friday, when the military dictator got on the pulpit to address his nation, he really had nothing new to say. During the one-hour, 45-minute broadcast, the bottomline was his plea for popular endorsement of his decision to stay on and rule Pakistan, beyond the three-year deadline he had imposed on himself upon deposing Nawaz Sharif in October 1999. The Pakistani people would thus be asked to trek to the polling booth some time in the first week of May to cast their vote. Ignore for now the crescendo of I-told-you-sos that has been building up in recent days as it8217;s become evident that Musharraf has no intentions whatsoever of benignly fading into retirement after the promised general election this October. Pakistani military dictators have never been inclined to do so 8212; in any diluted moves towards democracy, they have always cushioned themselves against parliamentary checks. And Musharraf betrayed no intent to deviate from the norm. No, the only curiosity in the current programme of action is his decision to forward a referendum expected later this autumn to early summer.

To go by Friday8217;s policy statement-cum-electoral pitch, the choice before the people of Pakistan is clear: five years of unfettered rule for Musharraf or complete political anarchy. And as things stand, he could be right. With Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto showing no signs of successfully ending their exile 8212; or indeed of retrieving any political credibility 8212; and with no new leader announcing his or her arrival, the vacuum is clear. So no prizes for guessing which way the voters are likely to sway. Never mind that by prolonging his residence in the presidential mansion, he would only delay, not avert, his country8217;s date with political instability. Never mind too some of the absurdities in the road map to 8216;8216;real democracy8217;8217; charted by Musharraf 8212; for instance, his announcement that a National Security Council would oversee checks and balances between the country8217;s all-powerful troika: the president, chief of army staff and prime minister, given that the first two posts will be held by one person, he himself. None of this surprises.

So why does Musharraf appear in such a tearing hurry to have his stint as president extended by five years? It is clear that Musharraf is confident of Washington endorsing the May referendum. In the days following September 11 he transformed from an undemocratic pariah to one of America8217;s key allies in the war against terrorism. Top members of the Bush administration have given enough indication that prickly questions about democracy and even the general8217;s resolve to weed out terrorists from his land should perhaps be put on hold while he consolidates his position. The trial of suspects in the Daniel Pearl murder case and the arrest of an important Al-Qaeda operative, Abu Zubaydaf, in Faisalabad threaten to refocus attention on his capacity to translate the good words of January 12 into concrete action. The well of goodwill at Foggy Bottom could actually dry up as summer advances 8212; and possibly with it, moves towards a more stable dispensation in Afghanistan. Musharraf8217;s an army man and he obviously realises that sometimes timing is all.

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