The Muslims who will vote for Modi

About 13 per cent of the Muslims in Gujarat intend to vote for the BJP. Support for the party is higher among the educated, women and youth.

Muslims in Gujarat, especially after the post-Godhra violence, find themselves in a difficult spot. They have to make a choice between going with the BJP or with staying out in political wilderness.

Muslims in the state constitute 9 per cent of the state8217;s population and are located in pockets of sizable concentration. Will Muslims in Gujarat vote for the BJP in the coming elections or will there be a complete polarisation of votes on religious lines?

The findings of the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar-CSDS survey indicate that about 13 per cent of the Muslims in the state intend to vote for BJP as compared with 74 per cent who say they8217;ll vote for the Congress.

So, who among the Muslims are those willing to support the BJP in this deeply divided state?

The support base of the BJP among Muslims is nearly the same in both rural and urban areas. However there is a significant gender divide: more Muslim women 14 per cent compared to men 10 per cent showed their inclination to vote for the saffron party.

Support for the BJP was also higher among the younger lot. Muslims in the age group of 56 and above are least supportive of the party ideology and policies and only 5 per cent among them intend to vote for the BJP. The lack of support among older Muslims could be directly attributed to their loss in the post-Godhra riots of 2002. Since older Muslims were affected the most, their support for the BJP dwindled more and was reported the lowest among all age groups.

Are educated Muslims more likely to support the BJP? The data shows that the highest support for the Modi government comes from educated Muslims. College-educated Muslim support for the party is more by 16 percentage points as compared with illiterate Muslims. Similarly there is a clear class divide in the Muslim support for the party. Richer Muslims intend to vote in more numbers for the BJP as compared with poorer Muslims. About 19 per cent among the rich Muslims said they would vote for the BJP as compared with only 5 per cent from the poorer section of the community.

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Narendra Modi8217;s style of functioning and governance in Gujarat finds more supporters among the young and educated Muslims than among older and uneducated Muslims.