• For Republicans, two states could end up determining whether the race goes on from here: California and Massachusetts, and this has nothing to do with delegates. If Romney pulls out a win in California, no matter what happens anyplace else, he is unlikely to leave the stage soon. By contrast, McCain—in a poke-in-the-eye momen—campaigned in Massachusetts, Romney’s home state. Should McCain win in Massachusetts and hold on to California, that would probably be the lights-out moment at the Romney headquarters. • For Democrats, watch California, Massachusetts, New York, Missouri, Arizona and New Mexico. If Obama wins California, that is a real momentum blocker for Clinton: There are few states in the country that are more identified with the Clinton presidency than this one. But Obama has suffered one of those external political problems that often madden campaigns: a last-minute California poll that showed him closing in on Clinton—in the process, raising expectations that he will win. • If Obama wins Massachusetts, that will be testimony to the power of Senator Edward M. Kennedy, and a real sting for Clinton, who once thought she had a comfortable lead there. If Obama comes close in New York, or in neighbouring New Jersey, watch for a tough round of questions about Clinton’s electability.Finally, think of Missouri, Arizona and New Mexico as the swing states in this contest: Obama and Clinton are pretty evenly matched there. Missouri is a swing state in the general election, and might be one in this one as well.
