That February scare

8220;Yes it is a matter of concern. Surveillance has been intensified in both poultry and migratory birds,8221; says Upma Chowdhry, joint secretary at the animal husbandry department, Ministry of Agriculture. This year, the outbreak has resurfaced in countries such as Hungary and UK, Romania, Russsia, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Turkey, Russia and Pakistan.

India has fewer reasons to worry. One, it feels that it did something right the last time. The international community has lauded India8217;s efforts in dealing with the crisis and its aftermath. The WHO has written to the Indian government praising them for their effective strategy and the bold and effective decision of culling birds in 10-km radius of the site of infection.

India is one of the few countries in the world that managed to achieve avian flu free status six months after the last case was detected. The trade within and outside India bounced back to normal in a few months. India has also been able to get assistance from the World Bank of 30 million dollars to improve capacity in dealing with bird flu: Set up better labs, GIS mapping of migratory birds, training of frontline personnel and better communication on the disease.

Two, based on 2006 experience, everybody agrees the level of preparedness is several degrees higher.

The learning from bird flu experience last year has been concretised into a step-by step manual for all states to follow: 8220;Last year too we had a manual. This time it is different as it is based on practical experience,8221; says Chowdhry.

It is a bible for surveillance tests methodology, dealing with an outbreak and re-surfacing after the infection. Every government functionary8217;s role has been detailed based on how it played out last year. 8220;The trick is to detect it before it spreads further,8221; says Chowdhry. More than one lakh samples of poultry and birds have been tested since February 20 last year.

There is some clarity on the source: Two studies have been published that show that the likely source of avian influenza was migratory birds. Based on these findings, vulnerable areas have been mapped that fall in the flyway of these birds on their to and fro journey from Siberia.

The effort is there to shorten the window of opportunity for the infection to spread. The High Security Animal Diseases Lab in Bhopal tests 3,000 to 4,000 samples every week from all over the country. Part of their burden is shared by the four regional labs, which do the serum testing. 8220;We test those samples on priority where abnormal morbidity is seen,8221; says H Pradhan, director of the Bhopal lab.

Every week, all the states are to send a review to the centre on the morbidity in poultry. If any abnormality is detected, it is taken very seriously and the Bhopal lab swings into action testing the samples in less than two days. Pradhan with his scientists developed a vaccine for the birds last year, the first in India. They have one lakh vaccines in store in the event of an outbreak. 8220;No private company has approached us,8221; says Pradhan. The reason is that companies do not see financial value in building a biosafety level III lab when there is no outbreak. It will cost about Rs 15 crore to build a single lab.

AT the Centre, the government is busy stockpiling both Tamiflu, the only medicine in case it spreads to humans and protective gear. It has already built a substantial inventory of life-support equipment. Apart from the stockpiling of Tamiflu, the government also has an agreement with Hetero and Roche to supply more in a span of two weeks, in case of an outbreak.

Trade that was most badly hit, has bounced back. Except for Japan, most countries have resumed trade in meat, chicken and eggs. 8220;This outbreak actually led to awareness of better biosafety and hygiene standards even among small farmers,8221; says Amit Sachdeva of the US Grains Council based in India.

Despite the preparation, March is awaited when the last of the migratory birds leave the country8217;s shores.