Terror sends reminder as India, Pak try to work on peace moves

Positive outcomes this week could pave the way for an early visit by the Prime Minister to Pakistan. But the Srinagar attack is a reminder of the many pitfalls ahead.

The UPA government had been preparing for weeks to make Singh’s discussion in Srinagar a success and get substantive results from the Indo-Pak talks on Siachen and Sir Creek.

In his speech at Amritsar in March, the Prime Minister reaffirmed his political will for transforming Indo-Pak relations by calling for structured cooperation between the divided parts of Kashmir, spelling out the expectations for early resolution of the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes, and proposing a peace and friendship treaty with Pakistan.

India’s coded message at Amritsar on Kashmir and Indo-Pak relations has since been conveyed in greater detail to Islamabad. The essence of the Indian communication was simple: Delhi is fully prepared to engage Islamabad in generating real progress on the Kashmir question.

And at home in the first round table on Kashmir in February, Singh had promised to begin substantive discussions on the questions of “autonomy” or “self-rule”.

Singh was determined not to let the controversial Pak terminology on “self rule” come in the way of addressing the substantive issues underlying the Kashmir question.

Singh had conveyed that India’s constitutional framework offered vast flexibility for such a discussion and the space to accommodate the political aspirations of the Kashmiri people.

Singh has also been leading a discussion within the government on the kind of steps the Centre could take to improve political and security conditions in the state. The Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Ghulam Nabi Azad, has been intensely involved in devising such a package of measures.

The distance that the Prime Minister is willing to travel on Kashmir, however, depends critically on Pakistan’s response to UPA government’s recent initiatives.

While cross border infiltration is at a low level, India is concerned about the continuing incidents of terrorist violence and the renewed activity of Kashmir related Jihadi groups in Pakistan. If the violence in Srinagar today and the recent brutal attack on Hindu villagers in Doda district are part of a pattern, India might have no option but to rethink its current assumptions about the peace process.

Equally important for this assessment would be the nature of talks on the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes as well as those on terrorism and cultural cooperation next week. While ideas on how to move forward have been in the air for a while, it is not clear whether Pakistan is ready to officially sign on.

India is apparently ready to begin a phased withdrawal from the Siachen in return for an acknowledgement of the current positions by Pakistan. But the devil as always is in the detail.

As it happened so very often in the past, even carefully negotiated Indo-Pak agreements on Siachen have unraveled even before the ink on them was dry. A political agreement on mutual disengagement from the Siachen glacier would have to be supported by clear understandings between the two armed forces on the timing and nature of the relocation of the troops.

Progress on Sir Creek is also possible if both sides adopt a more pragmatic approach that seeks to limit the scope of the dispute and begin the delineation of the maritime boundary.