
Leicester, May 26: After two weeks of battle between bat and ball, the decisive weapon in the cricket World Cup8217;s first-phase round could prove to be the pocket calculator.
While South Africa and Pakistan are virtually assured of progress to the Super Six, the battle for the four remaining places has developed into a fascinating, albeit, confusing one.
When teams finish level on points, they are divided first by the number of wins and then by their head-to-head record.
If, as looks increasingly likely, more than two teams finish level, their relative positions will be decided by net run-rate 8212; the average number of runs scored per over, minus the average conceded.
It means that run-rate could well prove decisive and that this week8217;s games involving the tournament8217;s outsiders have taken on a new importance.
Group B could well end with West Indies, New Zealand and Australia locked together in joint second place on six points. That scenario would need Australia to beat West Indies and New Zealand tolose to Pakistan.
Assuming West Indies and Australia beat Scotland and Bangladesh respectively tomorrow, the Old Trafford showdown between the the two on May 30 will be decisive.
If West Indies win, they will go through, also sending New Zealand through if they beat Scotland 8212; thanks to their group win over Australia.
If the Australians win in Manchester, they could still miss out on run-rate, so they will do their utmost against Bangladesh to make up their current deficit on West Indies.
8220;We haven8217;t looked at it too closely yet but we will certainly have a look before the game to see what we need to do,8221; Australian captain Steve Waugh said yesterday.
8220;We8217;ve got to win convincingly against Bangladesh. We know that. So we will be playing aggressively.8221;
Waugh said he was still not sure whether it was better to bat first and try to post a big score or bowl and try to skittle out Bangladesh and then knock off the runs quickly.
8220;We8217;ll have a chat about it before the game but whatever happens,we know it8217;s got to be a big win,8221; added Waugh.
West Indies will be trying to do the same against Scotland, although captain Brian Lara was trying to look at the Australia game more positively. 8220;We know that if we win our last two games, we will go through and we are concentrating on doing that,8221; he said.
New Zealand, despite their heavy defeat by Lara8217;s side on Monday, have a good run-rate and look assured of progress if they can avoid a disaster against Pakistan.
A narrow defeat and then a straightforward win over Scotland in their final game will probably be enough regardless of what happens at Old Trafford.
England8217;s victory over Zimbabwe yesterday made them favourites to join South Africa in the second round 8212; although it is not yet certain.
Zimbabwe, India and Sri Lanka could be battling it out for third spot and one of them could advance with just four points.
However, if Zimbabwe were to pull off a surprise victory over their southern African neighbours in their final game, they wouldstill not be assured of a place even with six points.
That situation would need India to beat Sri Lanka and England 8212; or Sri Lanka to beat India and Kenya.
Then the top four would all have six points and would be split by run-rate.
If, in the unlikely event of any teams having an identical run-rate to two decimal places then the decision is made on wickets taken per balls bowled.
Finally, six teams will go through to the second round of course, carrying with them only the points won against fellow-qualifiers.
And then, one will have to go through the whole thing again to decide the four semi-finalists.