Shaky in Andhra, Naidu avoids Bihar risk

Since Rabri Devi8217;s comeback was inevitable, the government should revoke President8217;s rule in Bihar and this would do away with the need to get the proclamation ratified.

A confidence vote could be sought soon after the Bihar vote and while his party would abstain on Bihar, it would vote with Vajpayee on the vote of confidence.

Naidu8217;s dilemma is not new but impending elections in Andhra Pradesh have compounded it. Faced as he is by the problems ofincumbency, both in the state and at the Centre, he has to try and win back minorities. One way would be to start distancing himself from the government here and Bihar provides him a clear opportunity.

Though Muslims are not very large in number in Andhra Pradesh, they do matter in the Telengana region. Last election, the TDP had got Muslim votes and the party8217;s alliance with the Left had helped. The CPI and CPM have been wooing Naidu but they made it clear to him that he must delink himself from the BJP. Then there8217;s the added problem of a recent revolt by his brother-in-law.

On the other hand, and this has been the rationale for his support to the BJP all along, his battle is with the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and the party has been on the upswing in recent months. He cannot risk a Congress- led or a Congress-supported government in Delhi with state polls only six months away. Nor can he afford the risk of either a simultaneous poll in the state along with general elections or for national electionsto precede the Assembly elections. For then national issues, giving a clear advantage to the Congress, will dominate. The TDP chief would like to fight the polls on state issuesand what he has done for Andhra Pradesh.

This devil versus deep sea dilemma had made Naidu take the position that he would abstain in the vote on Friday. But this was not good enough for the BJP. Even though the BJP has reportedly managed to get its numbers right, even with abstentions by TDP members, it would feel more secure if the party puts its weight behind the government tomorrow. What could help the TDP is the Dalit factor. The ruling alliance is flogging the fact that President8217;s rule has been imposed in Bihar on an issue involving Dalits and Dalit leaders are going to support the BJP8217;s action. Janata Dal leader Ram Vilas Paswan, who has given up the various positions he held in the party, is expected to vote in favour of Central rule and the BSP will do likewise.

As on Thursday night, BJP managers had managed to rustle up270, when they needed 266 for a majority in the event of the TDP abstaining. The Lok Sabha had one vacancy after the death of Ghasi Ram Yadav. With the removal of Ashok Gehlot and Giridhar Gamang as chief ministers of Rajasthan and Orissa respectively, the majority mark comes down to 266 in a house of 530that is if the 12 MPs of the TDP decide to abstain.

On its side, BJP has 181 not counting an ailing Vijayraje Scindia, 18 of AIADMK, 12 of Samata, 9 of the BJD, 7 of Akali Dal if Chandumajra decides to absent himself even though the party has issued a whip, 7 of Trinamool, six of the Shiv Sena, three of MDMK, four of PMK, three of Lok Shakti, one each of Arunachal Congress and Haryana Vikas Party, and 9 others. This totals 261. Add to this 5 of the BSP and one vote of Ram Vilas Paswan, and the ruling alliance reaches the magic figure of 267.

In addition, the BJP managers are also confident of at least 3, if not all four votes, of the Haryana Lok Dal led by Om Prakash Chautala. Though Chautalarecently withdrew support to the Vajpayee ministry, that his MPs will vote for the Government, is clear from the fact that they have been allowed a conscience vote to avoid a split in the party.

Overall, the message has gone that the Congress is not interested in forming an alternative government and would prefer elections.