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This is an archive article published on October 30, 2006

Say something, Dubya

Ever since President George W. Bush first proclaimed there to be an 8220;axis of evil8221; in 2002, pundits, diplomats and politicians have urged him to talk to its members.

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Ever since President George W. Bush first proclaimed there to be an 8220;axis of evil8221; in 2002, pundits, diplomats and politicians have urged him to talk to its members. But in the last few weeks, with Iraq experiencing a further surge in violence, North Korea testing a nuclear device and Iran continuing to defy a UNSC demand to stop enriching uranium, the cries for dialogue have grown louder.

James A. Baker III, the Republican former secretary of state, said this month that he believed 8220;in talking to your enemies8221;. After North Korea8217;s nuclear test, former President Jimmy Carter said that 8220;the stupidest thing that a government can do that has a real problem with someone is to refuse to talk to them.8221;

Senator Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois, said last weekend that even at the peak of the Cold War, 8220;when there were nuclear missiles pointing at every major US city, there was a direct line between the White House and the Kremlin.8221;

The question arises: is any of this cutting ice with the administration?

Officially, the administration is sticking to form. President Bush said as much during a news conference on Wednesday, when he was asked, again, whether he would be willing to work with Iran and Syria if it was determined that they could help bring stability to Iraq, their neighbour.

His reply did not veer from the script, which basically withholds American dialogue with 8220;axis of evil8221; members until they change their ways. 8220;Iran and Syria understand full well that the world expects them to help Iraq,8221; Bush said.

He said that if the Iranians stopped enriching uranium, American diplomats would talk to them. He also had a to-do list for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria to get into America8217;s good graces: 8220;Do not undermine the Siniora government in Lebanon; help Israel get back the prisoner that was captured by Hamas; don8217;t allow Hamas and Hezbollah to plot attacks against democracies in the Middle East; help inside of Iraq.8221;

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But within the administration, things are a little more nuanced, Bush officials said. One administration official distilled the internal deliberations this way, 8220;On Syria, there8217;s a very healthy debate about whether we should talk to them; on Iran, there is no debate internally.8221;

Among those who are urging more engagement with Damascus, most come from the State Department8217;s Near Eastern Affairs bureau, including Assistant Secretary C. David Welch, the officials said.

But, surprisingly, in recent months, the usually hawkish deputy national security adviser, J. D. Crouch, has been pushing for the administration to talk directly to Syria, officials say. 8220;It8217;s not a friendly 8216;Let8217;s go for coffee.8217; More like, 8216;Let8217;s directly deliver a very strong message to them,8217; 8221; one senior administration official said.

The original 8220;axis of evil8221;, as defined by Bush, comprises Iraq, North Korea and Iran. But after the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, Iraq was replaced by Syria, given the 2005 assassination in Lebanon of Rafik Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister. American officials and some at the United Nations have said Syria had a hand in the Hariri assassination.

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The Bush administration and Israel have also accused Syria of supporting Hezbollah in its raid into Israel this summer, an attack that set off a month-long war.

Officially, the United States has diplomatic relations with Damascus, where there is an American embassy. But it is manned by a chargeacute; d8217;affaires and not an ambassador; Bush recalled the ambassador to Syria, Margaret Scobey, after the Hariri assassination.

There is less debate within the administration when it comes to Iran. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is believed to have pushed the White House as far toward dialogue with Iran as it would go when she prodded Bush in May to offer to join European talks with Iran over Tehran8217;s nuclear ambitions.

Rice herself has offered to sit at the table with the Iranians, but she includes the usual caveat: Iran must first verifiably suspend its uranium enrichment programme.

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As for North Korea, American officials continue to espouse the view that the US, by insisting on talking to North Korea only within the confines of a regional group, can better share the burden of power.

Rice offered reporters the diplomatic version of that argument last week. 8220;There8217;s this myth out there that we haven8217;t been willing to talk to the North Koreans,8221; she said. 8220;What we8217;ve been unwilling to do is to negotiate bilaterally with the North Koreans, another agreement that they are going to be free to disregard because it will only be with the United States and not with states that frankly have more leverage than the United States, like China and South Korea.8221;

But the administration will continue to take hits over not talking to its enemies until it can demonstrably show that this strategy has had results, diplomats said. Said one European diplomat in Washington: 8220;They8217;ve isolated Cuba for 40 years, and you see how well that8217;s worked.8221;

 

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