Russia growls

The war of words being stepped up from Moscow adds a worrying dimension to NATO8217;s continuing aerial bombardment of Yugoslavia. Heightened rhetoric from Russian leaders undoubtedly reflects popular anger with NATO and sympathy for fellow Slavs. But there is much more to it than emotional reaction. For one, domestic political factors, among them impeachment hearings on Boris Yeltsin in the Duma and forthcoming presidential elections, make for an unpredictable political environment. Second and more important is an issue which cuts across political lines. In the perception of Moscow8217;s political and security elite, NATO8217;s formal eastern expansion embracing the Czech republic, Hungary and Poland is being followed by another fateful step which will undermine Russia8217;s long-term interests. It looks increasingly as though NATO8217;s unilateral airstrikes will require ground-forces8217; intervention and the de facto NATO occupation of Kosovo province for an indefinite period. The fear of such an outcome could unite Russiannationalists and moderates and harden the anti-west stance.

At present, however, several disparate voices are coming out of Moscow. Yeltsin who said initially that Russia would not be sucked into the Kosovo imbroglio is warning of Russian military involvement if pushed into it by NATO. It is unclear whether the Russian president has gone as far as the Duma speaker, Gennady Seleznev, claims, and ordered the retargeting of Russian missiles. Targeting or retargeting missiles is a small step technically but a significant one politically not only in the obvious sense of sending a message to NATO but in what it says about the origins of the message. What it may indicate is a shift in the balance of forces within the shaky Russian political establishment. Far-fetched though Seleznev8217;s proposition of Russian-Belrus-Yugoslavian union sounds, it is, like the missiles and reports of Russian volunteer forces being sent to Yugoslavia, a characteristic hardline response.

Whether or not Russian hardliners gain moreground will depend on the outcome of diplomatic moves which are going on at several levels to find an answer to Kosovo. The moment seems ripe for a diplomatic solution. Slobodan Milosevic8217;s unilateral ceasefire is a clear indication that he wants a negotiated settlement. But, after almost three weeks of unceasing bombing and the exodus of half a million from Kosovo, NATO believes its credibility and its future effectiveness will be at stake unless it is seen to 8220;prevail8221; in Kosovo. Quite what 8220;prevailing8221; entails has not been spelled out. However, the fact that President Clinton, if not the Europeans, remains reluctant to send in ground troops means that NATO is looking for an honourable way out. There have also been more than a few indications that NATO has wised up to the importance of an international force supervising any peace settlement. The Russians, minus their missiles, have an important role waiting for them here. A Russian-brokered plan and, if necessary, a military mission under theauthority of the Security Council to guarantee the return of refugees looks like the best hope for all sides.