Round 2 to be survival of the fittest

Even in the outgoing Assembly, the BJP never commanded absolute majority as its strength was always eight short of 41. But the party managed to run the government with the support of the JD(U) and four Independents. In the 2000 Assembly polls, when neither the BJP and JD(U) alliance nor the Congress and JMM alliance existed, the ruling parties had won 33 and 8 seats (Samata 3+ JD(U) 3) respectively where as the last two parties had bagged 11 and 12 seats with their ally turned foe Laloo Prasad Yadav’s RJD securing nine.

This time, the BJP and JD(U) are partners. So are Congress and JMM. But since the RJD, CPI and CPI-ML are out to better each other and the BJP-JD(U) in all 29 seats, it is advantage BJP-JD(U) beacuse the contest in each of these consituencies is triangular or multi-cornered.

Moreover, the incumbency is not showing any sign of erosion in the BJP’s traditional upper-caste and non-Christian Adivasi vote banks. But the spectre stalking the BJP is not only the Congress-JMM, but its five rebel MLAs including former minister Ramjilal Sarda and Speaker M.P. Singh who had quit the party and joined the fray against its candidates. Singh had even embraced Laloo.

Eversice the campaign for Round 2 began, stalwarts such as PM Manmohan Singh, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, former PM A.B. Vajpayee, BJP chief L.K. Advani, JMM chief Shibu Soren and RJD’s Laloo Prasad Yadav have addressed election meetings in the state. But there appears no wave in favour of any party.

Within the JMM, the intra party feud emanating from Soren’s decision to give ticket to his son Hemant and goading its five term MLA and Rajaya Sabha MP Stephen Marandi to quit, is bound to ruin the prospect of its candidates in at least 15 constituencies where the Adivasi Chritian community was its traditional vote bank.

Similarly,the Congress is being opposed by its own members who were either contesting as Independets or in alliance with the hitherto non-existent Trinamool in as many as five seats.