Republican dwarfs

After four states have spoken, two the inconsequential Wyoming and the more important Michigan have gone to the Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. The Arizona Senator John McCain has bagged New Hampshire and Iowa has gone to the Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.

As the Republican focus shifts this week to the Bible Belt8217;s South Carolina, where religious conservatives rule over the local Republican party, Huckabee, with his Christian platform, is likely to impress again. That could leave the party badly divided.

The former Mayor of New York city, Rudy Giuliani was indeed betting on such an outcome. Until recently the nation-wide front runner in the Republican field, Giuliani deliberately ignored the initial primaries to focus on Florida.

If California is the weighty Uttar Pradesh of American electoral arithmetic, Florida, like Karnataka, is significant in the numbers game. By winning Florida, Giuliani hopes to make the big push on February 5, when more than 20 states, including the populous California and New York, vote.

Unlike the naturally chaotic Democrats, the Republican Party is disciplined and tends to follow the establishment. The Republican warlords want the party to close ranks quickly, but have a problem.

There is no candidate in sight capable of reassembling the powerful coalition of economic conservatives, religious right and suburban middle classes that was constructed by President Ronald Reagan in the early 1980s.

The Libertarians

Among the many Republican candidates, there is one man who really irritates the party establishment. It is 73-year-old Congressman from Texas Ron Paul, who blames America8217;s foreign policy for the disastrous events of September 11, 2001.

To see where Paul8217;s political audacity comes from, we must turn to that unique American political tribe called the Libertarians.

Claiming political lineage from Thomas Jefferson, one of the founding fathers of America, and celebrating the minimalism of the American Constitution, the Libertarians insist that individual freedoms, including the right to property, are absolute. They are near fanatical in opposing the coercive powers of the state at home and abroad.

At home it translates into a very small government, that collects just that much of tax revenue to maintain social order and leaves the citizens alone. Abroad, they call for a policy of non-intervention.

Paul has been dismissed as either 8220;quixotic8221; or 8220;anarcho-capitalist8221;. But anti-war activists on the right, liberal isolationists on the left, and unhappy centrists have gravitated towards Paul8217;s platform demanding the urgent downsizing of the modern American state.

Besides Paul, there is an official Libertarian Party in the US. It is one of the relatively larger third parties in the US and claims to have 600 members holding elected public office across America.

Tax cuts

Unlike in India, the small parties in America rarely register their presence in the US Congress. But they are central to American political culture and do influence the broader political and economic debates. Take, for example, the Libertarian idea of minimal taxes.

The Republican orthodoxy makes a bow to the Libertarian views on low taxes and small government, but rejects isolationist foreign policy. The party must, however, cope with President Bush8217;s legacy of reduced taxation and a massive surge in government spending, including war chest for Iraq and Afghanistan.

As America heads towards a recession, the question of tax cuts has become a central theme of this year8217;s election. Democratic candidates are moving towards different variations of a stimulus package 8212; state intervention to generate economic activity. The Republicans are breaking apart on tax cuts.

While most Republican candidates fudge the issue, Huckabee the Christian populist, is demanding what he calls a 8220;fair tax8221; that gets the rich to pay more. He wants to abolish all federal taxes and replace it with national sales tax. The Republican elite, of course, is aghast at the idea of a VAT.

The writer is a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohanntu.edu.sg