Rainfall in peninsular India may improve by July-end

The July rainfall has practically disappointed farmers in the southern peninsula, Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts...

The July rainfall has practically disappointed farmers in the southern peninsula, Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts of northeastern India. The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department IMD, has not extended any immediate hope for the revival of the situation. Its numerical weather prediction models have said 8220;subdued rainfall activity would continue over central and western India in the next three to four days8221;.

The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Administration COLA in its short-term forecast for the period till July 26 has also confirmed low rainfall of 20 to 35 mm in western and parts of central and southern India. It, however, predicted heavy rainfall of over 150 mm in the heartland of north India, eastern and northeastern India, Andhra Pradesh and parts of central India.

According to COLA, the situation is likely to improve after July 27, when most parts of the country would receive good showers.

The other US-based agencies like Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and weather service of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA have noted the transition from La Nina to neutral conditions in the central and east-central equitorial Pacific during June. La Nina or cooling of Pacific waters below normal is usually responsible for good rains and the country enjoyed good rains in June, this year.

However, the possibility of emergence of the spoilsport, El Nino warming of Pacific waters is ruled out. This dispels the apprehensions of a severe drought year to an extent.

Weather conditions also depend upon the surrounding sea surface temperatures SSTs. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society IRICS predicted 8220;a weak positive dipole8221; in the equatorial Indian Ocean with slightly below average SSTs near Indonesia and slightly above average SSTs near the African coast.

July rainfall is crucial for Indian agriculture in the four-month S-W Monsoon season. The IMD has predicted the country will receive rainfall amounting to 98 of its long period average of 293 mm on cumulative basis in July, subject to a model error of /-9. Till the middle of the month the cumulative rainfall has been 321.8 mm which is 4 more than the normal. But Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh and parts of northeastern India did not receive good rainfall and as a result sowing operations were badly affected in these areas.

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Sowing operations for groundnut, red gram, black gram, green gram, cotton, sugarcane and millets like jowar were affected.

The July Fallout

8226;13 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions received deficient rains

8226;Marathwada worst hit

8226;35 of meteorological districts received deficient to scanty rains

8226;Peninsular India gets 34 less rains

8226;Rainfall deficient over central India by 3

8226;Areas under groundnut, red gram, black gram, green gram, cotton, sugarcane and jowar shrink

8226;Hope hinges on good rainfall distribution by month-end