Quota, foreign policy crucial issues for UPA

As the countdown for 2009 general elections will begin in 2007, the UPA is in for a tough second-half at the Centre.

As the countdown for 2009 general elections will begin in 2007, the UPA is in for a tough second-half at the Centre. 8220;We have done the doable already. What is left are the tough ones 8212; Indo-US civil nuclear deal, pension and labour reforms, improving the agriculture sector, etc,8221; a Congress minister said. The success and failure of UPA initiatives 8212; the rural employment scheme being the most prominent 8212; will also be visible in 2007.

But three political issues that originated last year will continue to haunt the Congress and the UPA, according to senior managers of the alliance. These are price rise and unemployment; managing the domestic fallout of foreign policy; and handling conflicting caste interests. The AICC general secretary, Digvijay Singh, said price rise was the 8220;prime concern for the party in the coming months.8221; Leaders who harp on the other two issues are not as forthcoming.

These issues are broadly the ones that brought the UPA to power and as such are crucial for the alliance. The previous NDA government8217;s emphasis on GDP growth while employment growth was negative, the nationwide electoral reaction to Gujarat riots and favourable caste coalitions in states like Bihar and Tamil Nadu catapulted the UPA to power. Now it perceives risks of a reversal in this trend.

Despite a series of initiatives, prices of essential commodities, particularly those of pulses, have not come down. In the Congress Working Committee CWC meeting in December almost every member raised the issue though it was not on the agenda. And tentative assessments do not indicate any substantial growth in employment in the organised sector, and certainly not commensurate with nine per cent GDP growth.

8220;Companies are not hiring despite growth. Those who are unemployed are also witnessing the unprecedented consumption around them, by participants in growth. This is politically very dangerous for us,8221; an advisor to the Prime Minister said. He said the solution was flexible labour laws that would let companies shed extra workforce in times of slump. 8220;Getting the Left support on this will be our task in 2007,8221; he said.

Foreign policy is increasingly becoming a turf for domestic political contest. The latest examples in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein8217;s execution are illustrative 8212; Samajwadi Party attacked the UPA for the government 8220;mild and inadequate8221; response. The CPIM said, 8220;India8217;s proposed strategic relations with the US must not continue.8221;

In 2006 Assembly elections, India8217;s proximity with the US indeed was a campaign issue and affected the Congress fortunes particularly in Assam and Kerala. Congress cannot give up the nascent strategic partnership with the US but will be constrained to seek the approval of its domestic constituency 8212; Muslims. In an emotionally surcharged atmosphere, it is indeed a tough task.

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Managing the conflicting caste interests will be the third challenge. For instance, even before the government is anywhere near any finality on SC/ST quota in the private sector, backward caste champions such as PMK and RJD are demanding that it be extended to them too. There are several other issues such as categorising Dalits, demand for sub-quota for Muslims in the 27 per cent OBC reservation and the question of creamy-layer that the UPA cannot avoid in 2007. It will be more about keeping a range of politically self-determining castes together than managing the respective parties within the alliance.