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Journalism of Courage
A new milestone in the South Asian arms race has been crossed with Pakistan8217;s test of the Ghauri surface-to-surface missile which is reportedly capable of carrying nuclear warheads and penetrating deep into Indian territory. It may be several more years before the Ghauri becomes operational but there is no mistaking Islamabad8217;s intention to press ahead with its ballistic missile programme despite all the constraints imposed by a failing economy and Washington8217;s admonitions, such as they are. If reports are true, Pakistan has moved rapidly from the 800-km range Hatf-3 missile tested in July last year to the 1500-km range Ghauri eight months later. It is premature to say whether Pakistan8217;s scientists have been able to overcome all the technical problems seen in earlier missile systems but it is certain that they continue to have access to technology and components from China, notwithstanding Chinese President Jiang Zemin8217;s assurances to the contrary to President Bill Clinton last summer. It is thereforenecessary to assume that the provocatively-named Ghauri is meant to be the centre-piece of Islamabad8217;s military and nuclear posture and could become operational before long.
The best way for India to defeat Islamabad8217;s plans is not to do the obvious and allow itself to be provoked. To fire the Ghauri at this point in time is so transparently an attempt to test reaction in New Delhi that it would be laughable were it not for the fact that it is a lethal game. The missile was supposed to have been unveiled on Pakistan Day, March 23, but Nawaz Sharif was prevailed upon by Washington to hold his hand. What has changed in two weeks is that with the BJP well ensconced in power, Islamabad has the excuse it needs to defy Washington. It justifies its action on the strength of the BJP8217;s manifesto commitment to exercise the nuclear option, which admittedly, suggests a major change in Indian policy. However, Islamabad has chosen to ignore subsequent clarifications from the Indian Prime Minister and Defence Minister tothe effect that India will exercise its option 8220;only if necessary8221; which restored the status quo.
