Whose neck will it be on the block?

Ahead of crucial tie against South Africa,strugglers against spin,it may just be consistent Balajis turn

Without fail,guessing games have been played each day before an India encounter this World T20. Reading skipper MS Dhonis mind to size up the men he will lead on to the field on match day is a common pastime for those following this particular team. Though,the five specialist bowlers experiment seems to be a thing of the past after the humiliating loss to Australia,speculation about the spinner-pacer break-up in the seven batsmen playing XI continued to rage a day before the sides final Super Eight game against South Africa. With the batting line-up finally settled,it was the bowlers who feared the axe on Monday.

Considering Dhoni has defied conventional wisdom in team selection and repeatedly shuffled his men to outsmart rivals,it wouldnt come as a surprise if he tampers with the winning combination from the Pakistan game. But for once,there will be a man in the opposition camp who might be able to predict the Indian line-up for the decisive last game before the semi-final. That man is of course South Africa coach Gary Kirsten,thanks to his long and successful working relationship with Dhoni in the role of Team Indias most successful coach.

The expected Indian strategy would be to exploit South Africas spin phobia,a weakness that got exposed in the game against Pakistan. That would mean drafting in off-spinner Harbhajan Singh,someone who has enjoyed success against South Africa in the past. So,the big question really then is,who sits out? Pacer Lakshmipathy Balaji is the likely candidate. Despite being the ultimate team man,Balaji is likely to be heart broken if he has to make make way for the extra spinner in Harbhajan.

Backroom boy

But beyond the Indian dressing room,not many tears will be shed for the benching of the perpetual backroom boy. His three for 22 against Pakistan,a spell that included the wicket of the dangerous Shahid Afridi,saw him become the joint highest wicket-taker for India so far in the tournament. Besides,the Tamil Nadu pacer has the best average and economy rate,even though he regularly bowls at the death. Despite these credentials,Balaji will find himself on the chopping block,a man used to being sidelined in the past during touch-and-go selection matters.

Balajis return to the national side too has come on the back of an emotional journey. All seemed to be lost for the pacer as he suffered a career-threatening back injury after his memorable tour to Pakistan in 2004. A couple of surgeries resulted in steel plates inserted around the spine region for support. After recovery,Balaji started the slow and painful climb up. Wickets in domestic cricket and the final IPL push saw him wear the India blues again. It remains to be seen if Balaji gets his captains confidence and is offered an extended stint in the playing XI.

Meanwhile,SA coach Kirsten too is grappling with his own selection issues. The big hitting Faf du Plessis for the even bigger hitting Richard Levi could be a possible swap on Kirstens mind. But one thing old mates Dhoni and Kirsten know is that their urgency in putting the best foot forward.

The India angle

Indias fate depends on the outcome of the early match of the day between Australia and Pakistan. Australia are on two wins,and comfortably placed. While Pakistan and India have one win each,South Africa have none. Pakistans -0.426 NRR is better than Indias -0.452 but only just. South Africa -0.605 has the worst NRR of the bottom three,and again,not by much.

Scenario 1:

Australia beat pakistan

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A India will make semifinals on points if they beat South Africa.

B There is a slim chance they will make it even if they lose,provided Pakistan are beaten badly and India run South Africa really close.

C If the India-South Africa match is rained out,India will make it through as they have a better Net Run Rate than the Proteas.

Scenario 2:

Pakistan beat australia

A India will make the semifinal if they beat South Africa by a bigger margin,as their Net Run Rate will better that of Pakistan.

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B If India loses the match,or if it is rained out,they will be knocked out. A Pakistan win against Australia will mean curtains for South Africa straight away.