Analysis: Paralyzed world clings to Annan8217;s failing Syria plan

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao urged all nations on Tuesday to support Annan8217;s mediation,the U.N. monitors and a political solution in Syria.

But no inkling of such a solution has appeared. Syria faces the grim possibility that violence will decide its fate.

Assad8217;s police state,in which his minority Alawite sect controls the army,security agencies and swathes of the economy,is trying to crush a 15-month-old popular uprising and now an armed rebellion driven by the Sunni Muslim majority.

For both sides,it has become a struggle for survival into which they may now be locked,whatever perplexed outsiders do.

After the Houla massacre in which 49 children and 34 women were among at least 108 people slain on May 25,public pressure is mounting for the world to do something,anything,for Syria8217;s bloodied civilians,despite the questionable utility of harsh sanctions and the many risks of military intervention.

Annan and many others have warned of Syria descending into a bloody,protracted sectarian civil war. We may be there already,8221; Ahmad Fawzi,the envoy8217;s spokesman,said on Monday.

Annan himself feels that perhaps the time has come,or is approaching,when the international community has to review 8230; the crisis in Syria and decide what needs to be done to ensure implementation of the six-point plan, Fawzi said.

RUSSIAN ROLE

The former U.N. chief will brief the Security Council on Thursday,but big powers,unable to agree on a more robust approach,may ask him to pursue his thankless task for now.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told on Monday that Annan8217;s proposals remain 8220;central8221; to a solution.

The United States and its European and Arab friends are trying to persuade Russia to back sterner action against Assad or to lean on him to commit to an agreed political transition similar to arrangements under which Yemen8217;s veteran leader Ali Abdullah Saleh formally relinquished power earlier this year.

Assad8217;s departure does not have to be a precondition,but it should be an outcome so that the people of Syria have a chance to express themselves, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Sunday,slightly softening Washington8217;s stance.

Moscow,which played a crucial role in securing Assad8217;s verbal acceptance of Annan8217;s plan two months ago,has signaled it is open to a Yemen-style solution for its Syrian ally.

Western officials view Russian cooperation as vital for the Annan plan and for any putative,and as yet remote,U.N.-backed moves to arm Syrian insurgents,as Saudi Arabia and Qatar advocate,or to act militarily against Assad 8211; policies that wary Western governments have yet to embrace themselves.

Western voters are weary of a decade of costly entanglements in Iraq and Afghanistan and their leaders,focused on economic troubles at home,see no simple fix for Syria8217;s plight.

Russia and China,wary of setting precedents that might comfort opponents at home,have twice vetoed Western-backed Security Council resolutions on Syria. They remain set against forced political change or foreign intervention which they say would worsen the conflict and further destabilize the region.

Assad8217;s government,allied to Iran and Lebanon8217;s armed Shi8217;ite Hezbollah movement,is hostile to Israel and at odds with Turkey and most of the Arab world,especially U.S.-aligned states such as Saudi Arabia and its Sunni-ruled Gulf partners.

Nearly 80,000 Syrian refugees have already spilled into Lebanon,Turkey and Jordan after more than a year of bloodshed which the United Nations says has cost more than 10,000 lives.

SAVING THE PATIENT

Clinton will discuss Syria with Western and Arab officials in Istanbul on Wednesday before a counter-terrorism conference.

She has already talked by telephone with Annan and her Russian counterpart on efforts to bring more pressure to bear on Assad,on the regime,to comply with all six aspects of 8230; the Annan plan,including a democratic or political transition.

State Department spokesman Mark Toner also said Washington was concerned about the conflict becoming more militarized after rebels said they were no longer bound by the ceasefire. 8220;We don8217;t believe this is the right way forward,8221; he said.

Yet Assad has brushed off Western measures,from sanctions to the expulsion of Syrian diplomats,blaming the violence racking his country on foreign-backed Islamist terrorists.

In a defiant speech on Sunday,he compared himself to a surgeon who must get blood on his hands to 8220;save the patient8221;.

Next day French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius predicted that 8220;the Assad regime will end up collapsing under the weight of its own crimes8221; 8211; but that could take a while given that Syria8217;s still cohesive military heavily outguns the rebels.

Even if sanctions and economic turmoil empty his treasury,Assad may well fight on,more like Libya8217;s Muammar Gaddafi than Yemen8217;s Saleh,who left office after months of international pressure in return for immunity from prosecution.

The Assad regime is not divided like Saleh8217;s was,8221; said Michael Stephens,a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute8217;s branch in Qatar. 8220;They stand and fall together 8230; because if one card goes they all go.