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Journalism of Courage
NEW DELHI, AUG 13: An opinion poll conducted by Insight, an associate of ORG-MARG, for the weekly India Today8217; has given the BJP and its allies 322-336 seats 8212; a clear and comfortable victory for the alliance. The Congress and is allies, on the other hand, will have to remain content with 132-146 seats.
Propelled by a Vajpayee wave,8217; the BJP alliance seems headed for a conclusive victory. So conclusive that the Congress is not only in danger of being outpolled by the BJP, but runs the risk of touching an all-time low in terms of seats.8217;
The poll was conducted between August 4 and 8 among 20,640 registered voters.
The BJP-led alliance8217;s tally, the poll says, is the result of a swing of 4 per cent in its favour. It had won 253 seats the last Lok Sabha elections, while the Congress and its allies emerged victorious in 147 seats in the previous elections.
The poll gives rest of the parties, which includes an array of formations ranging from the Left bloc to the Nationalist Congress Party-SamajwadiParty combine are likely to romp home in 70-80 seats.
The National Democratic Alliance8217;s impressive surge is attributed to a groundswell of public opinion in the wake of the victorious encounter in Kargil and a series of strategic alliances with powerful regional players.
The biggest beneficiary of this wave is likely to be the BJP, the poll says. Judging by trends, its vote-share may touch 32 per cent and could win some 220 seats on its own.
Region-wise, the BJP-led alliance, the poll says, is likely to win 111-121 seats in the north as against the 89 seats it won last time, 72-82 seats in the south as against 48 seats in the 1998 elections, 63-73 seats in the east up from 55 seats and 63-73 seats in the west a marginal increase over 61 seats it won last time.
The 1999 elections, according to the survey, could mark a watershed for the BJP in terms of its image as a doctrinnaire, upper-caste party with a large urban base.8217; Of the 32.6 per cent vote that the opinion poll forecasts for the BJP,70 per cent will be from the rural areas. A larger number of people belonging to the backward castes, women, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes and high school educated are likely to pitch in for the party this time round.
A massive 81 per cent of the people surveyed believe Kargil was a decisive victory for India, and 83 per cent of the people feel that that the conflict was managed well by the Vajpayee Government.
