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This is an archive article published on May 9, 2004

Political forecasts (without breaks)

I know there are many who would appear to be infinitely better at political forecasting than I am. Take Prannoy Roy, for instance. As a psep...

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I know there are many who would appear to be infinitely better at political forecasting than I am. Take Prannoy Roy, for instance. As a psephologist, he has an unfair advantage over me and there is precious little I can do about it. He has a beard. And beards sit very well on prophets and political forecasters alike. People tend to take the predictions of those with beards that much more seriously. Since I don’t have a beard, and am unlikely to ever sport one, it is extremely doubtful if corporate giants will queue up to sponsor this column. Which also means I cannot take two-minute breaks every two paragraphs, and bombard you with images of airconditioners and flat TVs. But let that pass. Here’s to state for the record that while Prannoy Roy’s predictions may or not pass the reality test, mine most certainly will. So mark my words as I predict…

That in 24 hours, our netas will hang up their smiles and hang on to their namaskars, salt away their promises for another day and finally stop talking. Which is a good thing because we have, in any case, long stopped listening to them.

That it’s a good thing that these politicians don’t do what they have just pledged to do for our welfare and actually give us good roads, jobs, uninterrupted power, healthcare and corruption-free governance. Because if they do what they say they are going to do, how on earth will they win elections the next time around and how in heavens will democracy survive?

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That we must all prepare ourselves for a period when equine is in and horse dung is the order of the day, or rather the odour of the day, as our newly-elected stuffed white kurtas painstakingly work behind the scenes to create a government that is — in the great traditions of our democracy — best suited to deal with the needs and desires of the voted (voters, you must understand, lose their utility the moment the last vote is cast).

That in the next elections, the opinion poll/exit poll wallahs will be out of business. Why have these elaborate and expensive counting and calculating exercises when the stock markets and satta bazaars do the job as well?

That, whatever the voter or Election Commission does, there is no getting away from the iron rule of Indian politics: That half the number of those who fill Parliament are natural scoundrels, and half the number, are incompetent. And that does not necessarily mean the same half.

That, I don’t know about you, but it’s clear to me that Dharmendra will actually make it to the tower of power, and it is the rest of us who will now have to contemplate ‘‘soocide’’.

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That, I don’t know about you, but it’s clear to me that Rahul Gandhi will prove that politics is genetics by another name. His first speech in Parliament could see him invoke the names of his great-great-grandfather, his great-grandfather, his grandfather, and his father. Not to speak of his grandmother and mother. Heredity certainly runs in that family.

That, I don’t know what you think, but it is very unlikely that Hero No 1 Govinda will ever board that local to Virar with a second-class ticket again, even if he doesn’t get a ticket to ride to Parliament this time.

That, I don’t know what you think, but Navjot Singh Sidhu will be more of a disaster in Parliament, than on television, for the simple reason that Sidhu on television can be switched off, unlike Sidhu in Parliament. To borrow a Sidhuism — the light at the end of this tunnel is only an incoming train called Sidhu, who will slam into us with his big mouth and mixed metaphors.

That it looks like Ekta Kapoor’s wish to get the star of her popular soap, Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi back, will come true. Although I don’t know whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, because having Tulsi Virani in Parliament may be better than having Tulsi Virani on television. At least, we will not have to weep so much with Tulsi Virani in Parliament, although this too, should it happen, will be a fairly tragic development.

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That the low voter turnout in these polls indicates that India’s voters are turning apathetic. But why bother about that anyway?

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