No second acts in Iran?

An election that looks predictable might have unlikely implications

Iran8217;s recent parliamentary elections stuck closely to a script familiar from the past four years: Conservatives predictably won the majority of seats from a ballot cleansed of reformists by the Guardians Council; turnout in cosmopolitan Tehran was lower than the provinces; and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blasted the United States for interfering in Iran8217;s elections. The election8217;s only clear winner 8212; as usual, in this script 8212;is Khamenei, whose virtual veto power over all matters of state, combined with a conservative ascendancy, grants him a political shield that will be difficult to penetrate.

But this year8217;s script does offer some plot twists: A closer look at the election results reveals that the reformists did better than expected given their limited opportunities to run, and a significant bloc of independents with no clear political leaning has joined the parliament. Perhaps most importantly, substantive cleavages now divide Iran8217;s conservatives 8212; with important implications for the rest of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad8217;s term and the possible roadblocks to his re-election in 20098230;

For starters, the pragmatic conservatives are less confrontational in foreign policy matters than Ahmadinejad. Depending on the issue, the differences lie in either policy or tone, and sometimes in both. On the nuclear issue, the pragmatists generally agree with Ahmadinejad 8212; they too believe that Iran has a right to enrich uranium 8212; but would pursue this goal in a climate of measured negotiations with the European Union and others8230; On other issues of foreign policy, the divides among conservatives are not so clear. On regional policy, negotiations with America, and the country8217;s confrontational stance toward Israel, the pragmatists do not differ markedly from the hard-liners. Their push for more active diplomatic engagement on many of these issues makes their positions seem more reasonable 8212; which is, admittedly, a low bar when compared to a president who denies the Holocaust and glad-hands dictators around the world8230;

It is a measure of the hopelessness and the restricted nature of Iranian politics that Khatami 8212; whose tenure generated equal parts excitement and frustration 8212; is seen as their best hope, after he had been severely hampered by many of those same conservatives who are in political ascendance today.

Excerpted from an article by Afshin Molavi in The New Republic