New Germany in New Europe

I have spent the last week in Germany, largely in Berlin and what used to be the old communist-run German Democratic Republic, meeting diplo...

I have spent the last week in Germany, largely in Berlin and what used to be the old communist-run German Democratic Republic, meeting diplomats, media persons, academics and politicians of different hues. To all of them I have posed two inter-related questions raised earlier in this column. First, what is the current state of integration, as much of East with West Germany as of Germany into Europe? And, second, is the German revolt over Iraq a flash in the pan or the first assertion of an independent German-led European voice in international affairs?

The answer to the first is that while East-West integration is almost complete, there is a residue of unresolved issues to which old-fashioned socialism rather than new-fangled capitalism might have the solutions. While former GDR has embraced plural democracy and is revelling in the freedoms of a liberal democracy, economic integration has meant massive de-industrialisation through throw-away privatisation and the closure of many large-scale and almost all medium and small industry, an almost total loss of traditional export markets, empty office buildings and vacant apartment blocks, an exodus of youth and talent, and the highest rate of unemployment in the European Union, including candidate-members of the expanding EU from Poland to Cyprus. The European Commission has classified three great cities of former GDR 8212; Leipzig, Halle and Dressau 8212; as suffering the highest rate of unemployment in Europe, touching 20 per cent but nearer 50 per cent if one includes those in part-time employment.

There is, of course, humongous West German expenditure in East German infrastructure 8212; telecom, tourism and trade fairs, autobahns, airports, railway stations 8212; but the insecurity of life under LPG liberalisation/privatisation/globalisation compared to the comfortable securities of the past make for a loss of self-esteem and discomfort at West German 8220;arrogance8221; which manifests itself in a quite extraordinary persistence, indeed resurgence, of the old communist party of GDR, the Socialist Unity Party SED, in its After-the-Fall-of-the-Wall incarnation as the Party of Democratic Socialism PDS. In Frankfurt/ Oder on the border with Poland, 40 per cent of the voters opt for the PDS; in the Leipzig city council, the PDS are a bare six seats short of an absolute majority in a house of 71; and the state of Sachsen-Anhalt had as its premier minister-president till 2002 a well-known former activist of the allegedly much-reviled SED. In a poll being conducted by a popular German TV channel to elect the greatest German of all time, Karl Marx is in the lead!

But for all its problems, Germany is again One Germany, no longer an occupied territory the occidental Occupation Forces left in 1994, the economic power-house of Europe, demographically the biggest European country by far, geographically situated in Europe8217;s heartland, with no enemies from Lisbon to Vladivostok, and influential to the point of being decisive in shaping European thinking on defence strategy and foreign relations. The Second World War is truly over. As is the Cold War. 8220;For the first time in our history,8221; said Dr R. Rummel of Berlin8217;s leading international relations think-tank, 8220;Germany is surrounded by friendly neighbours.8221; I could not help responding, 8220;And for the first time in history, your neighbours are faced with a friendly Germany!8221;

Yet, will the new Germany in a new Europe hoe a different furrow? The German establishment is almost alarmed at the thought. 8220;We want effective multilateralism,8221; they say, 8220;but not multi-polarity.8221; Pressed to explain how they can expect to have effective multilateralism without effective multi-polarity, the first reaction is to disavow words 8220;that might upset the Americans8221;; then to point to the many hurdles in the way of a pan-European defence and foreign policy, let alone one that is independent of Washington; then to elaborate on Europe8217;s lack of military clout; and finally to rest their case on the essential oneness of the value-system of the transatlantic alliance. Asked then to explain why if US dominance is so satisfactory, Europe8217;s external affairs commissioner, Javier Solana, has been asked to submit a paper on European defence and security which is to be discussed at summit level next month, thinking Germans first say 8212; and this is a genuine quote from what I was told 8212; 8220;because the Americans are short-sighted and prefer quick-fix military solutions8221; and then hastily retract their spontaneous response to go in for convoluted explanations about how Berlin will do nothing without Paris, nor will there ever be consensus at Brussels over anything which displeases America. We are back to where we started.

But those thinking Germans who do not have to be circumspect openly ask what is wrong with prosperous, democratic, united Germany coming into its own to lead Europe down the right path, especially as the Americans are making such a spectacular mess of things. The necessity, indeed desirability, of an independent or, at any rate, a 8220;not too dependent8221; voice in international affairs was vindicated by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder making up a 20 per cent deficit in the opinion polls in the run-up to the elections in October 2002 the minute he embraced the basic thesis of his minister of justice, the utterly brilliant and charismatic Herta Daubler-Gmelin, professor of law at the University of Tubingen although to appease the Americans he sacked her for comparing 8212; in a private conversation 8212; Adolf Hitler8217;s strategy in Austria, Czechoslovakia and Poland with Bush8217;s approach to weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

The German people want an independent foreign policy; they have put their war guilt behind them Schroeder, like three-quarters of today8217;s Germans, was born after Hitler died; they want One Europe and a Europe at peace with the world. They are alarmed at the cowboy politics of George W. Bush; so, despite their apprehensions, are set on the course of a multilateral and, therefore, multipolar world order. South Block must wake up to the new opportunities which the new Europe affords us for redefining and re-launching the Non-Aligned Movement as a Movement for Multipolarity or, at least, as a Movement for Multilateralism.