Neighbourhood watch

A transition to democracy from military rule is tougher than one from monarchical rule. Look at the cases of Pakistan and Nepal.

A transition to democracy from military rule is tougher than one from monarchical rule. Look at the cases of Pakistan and Nepal. Pakistan, which has been plagued by military rule, shook off the yoke of its former army chief, Pervez Musharraf, when the latter was forced to resign from the presidency. Nepal formally ended its 240-year-old monarchy in June 2008, as a coalition government led by the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist CPN-M leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda, took office after multi-party elections. Both countries have a long acquaintance with authoritarian rule interspersed with short bouts of democratic governance. But the chances for democratic consolidation in Nepal are better than those for Pakistan for several reasons.

First, the transformation of Nepal into a federal republic means that the monarch will not be able to wait in the wings and create opportunities for his return. In contrast, the military will continue to oversee the performance of politicians in Pakistan despite the current army chief General Kiyani8217;s reported reluctance to intervene in the political arena.

Second, the power sharing between the winners in the Nepal Constituent Assembly elections has been relatively smooth, albeit with a couple of hiccups. During the presidential elections, the fourth-largest party, the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum MJF, switched sides at the last minute and supported the Nepali Congress candidate leaving the Maoists seething with a sense of betrayal. The most dangerous moment that could have scuttled the chances of democracy in Nepal came when the main parties could not agree on portfolios in the new government. The Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist- Leninist CPN-UML, the third-largest party in the Constituent Assembly, even boycotted the oath-taking ceremony of the new cabinet because the Maoists had rejected their demand that their candidate8217;s home ministry portfolio be ranked second in the pecking order.

Fortunately, all sides finally compromised and the cabinet was formed with 24 ministers from the three parties. The Maoists met the CPN-UML and the home minister also became the deputy prime minister. The erstwhile ruling party, the Nepali Congress will now sit in the opposition.

In Pakistan, on the other hand, the two main political parties, the Pakistan People8217;s Party PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz PML-N, which had combined forces to engineer Pervez Musharraf8217;s exit, are now estranged, after squabbling about reinstating judges and the presidential election.

Third, Nepal8217;s two powerful neighbours, India and China, have adopted an overt hands-off policy on domestic Nepali politics, whereas Pakistan is inextricably linked with the United States in the war on terror. The US military has conducted several strikes through the Pakistani army along the troubled north-west frontier and in Balochistan against suspected militants. Pakistani citizens and soldiers have suffered over 2000 casualties last year in the retaliatory strikes by militants.

Fourth, the tolerance of the Nepali electorate for inept democrats seems higher because the country has experienced rule by several governments in the last couple of decades, albeit overseen by the monarch. Contrast this to the history of democracy in Pakistan where each time the politicians faltered, the military seized power with the silent approval of the civilian populace. It happened during the governments led by Bhutto senior, Benazir and Sharif, who were perceived as inefficient and corrupt. But the habit of democracy can take root only if politicians are given a chance to fail, and fail again and again by the citizens and other state institutions. Pakistani citizens have to develop tolerance for these failures, and guard their liberties jealously against the military.

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Pakistan8217;s weak coalition government, embroiled in a tussle for power, will find it much more difficult to control the deadly combination of terrorism and a faltering economy 8212; inflation accelerated to 24.3 per cent in July and forex reserves have declined by more than half. Of course, Nepal8217;s coalition government too faces colossal challenges, including the formulation of a constitution and the demobilisation and/or incorporation of Maoist soldiers into the Nepali army. Still, the odds favour Nepal8217;s chances of developing a habit of democracy.

The writer is a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, Delhi

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