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This is an archive article published on June 1, 2004

Monsoon should deliver, now can FM do the same?

On Friday, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said a good monsoon this year could push the growth rate over the 8 per cent mark. Somebody up the...

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On Friday, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said a good monsoon this year could push the growth rate over the 8 per cent mark. Somebody up there must have been listening because the latest satellite information indicates that it will be a good monsoon — and it’s already before time.

The satellite maps of the US-based National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP) and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) predict that the monsoon will advance to southern Gujarat and some northern parts of peninsular India by June 4.

One fallout is in the fields: The farmers have gone in for early sowing. The average cumulative rainfall nationwide from March 1-May 26 has been 26 per cent above the normal. All the farmers want now is for the June and July rainfall to be as good as expected.

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The Southwest Monsoon had arrived on the mainland on May 16/17, two weeks ahead of schedule — and even before the UPA government assumed power at the Centre. It resulted in good rains in southern and northeastern parts of the country. The week ended May 19 saw good rains right across the country: Andaman & Nicobar, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, northeastern India, north Bengal and Sikkim.

Interestingly, the country’s official weather forecasting agency, the India Meteorological Department, offers different information about the date the monsoon arrived.

On May 18, it said “the South West Monsoon has temporarily advanced into southern parts of Lakshadweep and parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu.” Two days later, it said conditions were ‘‘favourable for further advance of South West Monsoon over North Eastern States during next 48 hours.”

On the other hand, NCEP/COLA imagery on May 17 had shown deep ingress of monsoon system into the northeastern parts of the country and on May 18 it had shown monsoon entry into the southern part of the country.

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