Long-distance runner Pervez is lonely

According to a number of retired army generals, including the former army chief Aslam Mirza Beg and the ex-head of ISI...

According to a number of retired army generals, including the former army chief Aslam Mirza Beg and the ex-head of ISI, Hameed Gul, Musharraf8217;s predicament will remain despite his having stepped down as army chief and become a civilian president. The main source of his strength was his position as army chief. Once he surrendered this post, he is no more than an orphan. According to Beg, Musharraf is unlikely to survive as a civilian president even for a year. Very soon, he will be confronted by crisis after crisis, and be forced to step down as president and live in exile like the Shah of Iran.

Musharraf is left with no friends. His own king8217;s party 8212; Pakistan Muslim League-Q PMLQ has also given indications of abandoning him. Some 20 members of the National Assembly from the PMLQ had earlier resigned from their membership because of two issues: they argue that Musharraf should not have forced the same parliament to elect him as the civilian president and he should not have sacked the chief justice of Pakistan in such a humiliating way. The decision to impose the emergency has also been criticised by close confidantes, like Mushahid Hussain Syed, the secretary-general of the PMLQ.

Syed was of the view that elections will have no credibility if they are held under the emergency and he campaigned for the immediate lifting of emergency. As he put it to a foreign news agency recently, 8220;We do not need emergency to either contest the election or win the election. Lifting the emergency would create a positive atmosphere. The emergency has a negative impact at home and abroad. I personally feel that it would be appropriate and internationally welcomed to lift the emergency before elections.8221;

Moreover, there is defection within the PMLQ. Kabir Wasti, the central vice-president of the party used to be a great sycophant of Pervez Musharraf. These days he has turned to be one of his strongest detractors. He has even been thrown out of the party for hailing the supreme court8217;s decision restoring Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Wasti saw the decision to reinstate the chief justice as a victory for the whole nation and an important step towards the strengthening and independence of the country8217;s judiciary, more than as a victory or defeat for any one. No one can deprive the masses of their basic rights in the presence of a powerful judiciary because the judiciary has always urged for the revival and protection of public rights. Of course, it is another matter that since then Musharraf has replaced all the judges of the apex court with people he can trust.

Musharraf harbours the belief that he will be able to deal with future crises just like he has done crises of the past. He conveniently forgets that it was his uniform that helped him deal with past crises. He will now no longer be able to use the army for his political purposes, no matter how loyal General Ashfaq Kiyani is or has been to him.

Today, Musharraf is a politician without the backing of a party or the people of Pakistan. His party, to all intents and purposes, was the Pakistan army, but it has a new head now. Kiyani is considered to be loyal to the US and he will toe the line drawn by the Americans, not Musharraf.

In the days to come, the reality of his situation will hit Musharraf. He will realise that his king8217;s party has abandoned him, and that he is despised by the average Pakistani. No political party is also willing to work with him. The leaders of Pakistan8217;s two mainstream parties 8212; Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif 8212; have loudly indicated this. Even his 8216;secret-cronies8217; like the clerics of Muttehida Majlis-e-Amal, no longer trust him.

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Musharraf used to once proclaim that Pakistan8217;s 8216;silent majority8217; is with him. Today, he may discover that the silent majority could be his biggest opponent.

The writer is a commentator based in Islamabad

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