Does General Pervez Musharraf intend to honour his promise to the Americans of a ‘‘permanent’’ end to cross-border infiltration? Inputs by Indian intelligence agencies to the political establishment indicate that groups of infiltrators are still sneaking into India though militant leaders have asked their cadre to lie low, only for two to three months.
Now it’s almost one month after US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage got the assurance from the General. After Armitage left, Indian agencies began their efforts to ascertain if Musharraf’s oft-repeated assertion that there was ‘‘no movement across the Line of Control’’ was true or not.
The picture that has emerged is one of tactical retreat till the heat was on. In fact, from May 28 to June-end, the BSF got source information on 11 groups of infiltrators crossing over to J&K, some as big as 20 men.
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On the other hand, while firing along the LoC has come down dramatically, along the International Border (IB), it’s down to half — about 2,500 rounds from small weapons are being fired daily. That’s
considered far less than
‘‘routine’’.
It’s the Government’s listening posts, which tune into wireless transmissions made by Pakistan’s militant and military cadres, that have given the most important leads.
The (LeT), for instance, has formed several splinter groups, and a recent clash in Doda between the LeT and Hizbul Mujahideen had had a serious fallout. Then, there was a June 17 intercept about a group of 150 Al Qaida militants who had entered Pakistan on May 2 from the Chaman border. The group had reached the Domel training camp and was to cross over through the Kahuta area. ‘‘These militants are being trained in speaking Urdu and Kashmiri and were now learning Kashmiri customs and may cross into India in the last week of June,’’ the decoded message revealed.
This is what some latest intercepts, accessed by The Indian Express, reveal about the changes along the LoC:
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n On June 25, the LeT commander in Zaffarwal, Nayeem-ul-Rehman, and the LeT commander in Udhampur, Abu Dhara, spoke about militants being asked to restrict their movements and slow down infiltration/exfiltration as the Pakistan government was under ‘‘tremendous pressure’’. The messages, intercepted at Jammu, asked the commanders to inform their cadre that the Pakistan government had promised to lift the ‘‘ban’’ within two or three months and these decisions had been taken jointly by the Jehad Council and the Pak govt, sensing the ‘‘coming situation’’.
n Intercepts of June 24, from the Jammu and Rajouri sectors, indicate drying up of supplies. One group (Code 17) was facing an ‘‘acute’’ shortage of ammunition and manpower and was annoyed with their commanders over the scarcity. A message decoded at Rajouri on the same day was a distress call from a HM station (Code 93) due to shortage of ration for two months. A third set of conversations decoded on June 21 indicated how the ‘‘militants attached with the Pak Army are facing problems of water, light and other essential facilities.’’
n On June 20, a message intercepted at Kupwara showed how the Pakistan goverment had asked for details of illegal activities at madarsas in every district and foreign aid to prisoners in jails. On June 19, a police message being relayed from Peshawar revealed how the superintendents had been asked to take action against foreign students in the madarsas and push them back to their respective countries through their embassies.
n On June 17, a message intercepted at Srinagar gave leads about the LeT forming three splinter groups. While the Al Madina group will operate in Srinagar city, Azam Jehad will operate along the highways and Banihal and Al Mansurian make Jammu its base. Another message of June 14 warned militants that Code 77 (HM Commander Syed Salahuddin) was ‘‘worried’’ about the clash between the HM and LeT and warned that further clashes may ‘‘harm the on-going freedom movement’’.
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Top Government officials say that taken cumulatively, the intelligence gathered during the past few weeks showed only a lull in infiltration and militant action and not a cessation of activities. This has been reflected in the recent statements made by the PM and Home Minister.