Kaun banega PM?

The rug was pulled from under the erstwhile ruling coalition headed by Musharraf, when the stalwarts of the ruling parties appeared on TV on the eve of the election, claiming without an iota of premonition that they were about to hold historic, fair elections. Many took it with a pinch of salt; others were flabbergasted, given the rulers8217; record. But the gods heard them. And then it began to unfold. Those who had given themselves the credit for holding fair elections were not to be found anywhere as the results began to role in. The turnout was 45.6 per cent, twice as expected, given the terrorist threat, and which perhaps would have prevented an upsetting outcome for the rulers.

The mullah-military alliance has fallen. Secular parties have emerged victorious across the board in the only election held in a fairer manner since that of 1970, when the army rule was at its lowest ebb. Back then, the results were astounding; the former East Pakistan had voted for the anti-establishment Awami League and Punjab for Bhutto8217;s People8217;s Party, a homegrown thorn in the side of the West Pakistan8217;s hegemonic military. On Monday, history was repeated: the army8217;s popularity is at its lowest again, and the provinces have given strong, if disparate, anti-establishment verdict. Punjab has again been on a punishing spree.

Homegrown dissent was given voice by Nawaz Sharif in Punjab, the military8217;s recruiting ground. The bashing was unprecedented in the recruitment districts of Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Attock, Jhelum, Chakwal and Sargodha. They returned a mixed bag: a split vote for Bhutto and Sharif, little for the sarkari League. The stalwarts fell: 22 ministers, including the PML-Q chief Shujaat Husain, in their hometowns. Those losing didn8217;t even manage the runner-up slots.

The Q League8217;s erstwhile Punjab CM, Pervaiz Elahi, had set his eyes on prime ministership, but lost on three seats, just managing to get elected from a fourth, 150 miles away from his hometown. Winning the highest number of seats, 87 and counting, in a house contested for 268 of 272 seats, the PPP is ahead of the PML-Nawaz8217;s tally of 66, with results to about 10 seats awaited. The sarkari League lags behind with 38 seats, and few known faces retuned. MQM won the 19 seats it was expected to bag ; no upsets there, nor a plausible candidate for the PM slot; the secular, leftist Awami National Party polled in 10 from the Frontier, ousting the mullahs, who only managed three seats at the Centre; independents, mostly big parties8217; dissidents who were refused tickets, hold 27 seats.

Unlike the PPP, which soon after Bhutto8217;s murder suggested that Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a Sindhi feudal and diehard party loyalist, may be the prime ministerial candidate, no other party has identified a leader for the slot. It is not clear anymore whether the PPP cochairman Asif Ali Zardari will wait it out this term or seek to be elected in a by-election to seek prime ministership. No other party leader has been dubbed for the post.

On the other hand, it is too early to say if Sharif will abide by his word to let the PPP have the top slot; the man never expected the kind of vote his party got on Monday and may be having second thoughts. But other issues are involved in the way of getting Sharif to run for election, given Musharraf8217;s tempering with the constitution. A two-third majority is required to undo the changes made in the basic law that bar a candidate from running for prime misnistership for a third term; the Sharif brothers are also barred under another law from contesting elections.

A national consensus government, to which the PPP and the PML-N had pledged themselves, and provided they reach out to the MQM, the ANP and/or independents for support, and a two-third majority which both the PPP and the PML-N seek to undo the obstructing laws, remain a dream. So does a known, credible candidate for the PM slot, for now.

8220;I appreciate the spirit of the people, they have given a verdict. It was not being understood by Musharraf. He had closed his eyes. He would say when people would want, I will go. Today the people have said what they want.8221;

8226; Nawaz Sharif, Leader, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz and former prime minister

8220;We accept the results with an open heart and will sit on Opposition benches in the new Parliament.8221;

8226; Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Head, PML-Q

8220;This is an opportunity for us to move from a policy that has been focused on a personality to one based on an entire people.8221;

8226; Joseph Biden,

Chairman, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and an election observer

8220;All the king8217;s men, gone!8221;

8226;A headline in the Daily Times

8220;Today is an important day, not just for Larkana, not just Sindh or Pakistan, but for the whole world!8221;

8226; Akhtiar Ali, an unemployed PPP supporter

The writer is an editor with Dawn, Karachi murtazarazvihotmail.com