It146;s all in the numbers

The Union government8217;s decision to hold in abeyance fresh delimitation...

The Union government8217;s decision to hold in abeyance fresh delimitation of constituencies in four states in the Northeast 8212;Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh 8212; has received a mixed response. While Assam has mostly welcomed it, Manipur is torn up over the process. Nagaland is anyway going to polls on March 5, and Arunachal Pradesh has also heaved a sigh of relief for now.

In Assam, political parties as well as groups like the All Assam Students8217; Union AASU say a large number of Bangladeshi migrants had found their way onto the state8217;s electoral rolls and that delimitation of constituencies based on existing rolls would lead to anomalies. Things have come to such a pass that while the associate members of the Delimitation Commission from the state quit the panel, R.P. Sharma, a Guwahati-based lawyer, filed a PIL in the Guwahati high court last year seeking a stay order on the process. Sharma8217;s PIL was in line with the stand of AASU as well as various political parties in the state, that is, putting the process on hold till the state8217;s National Register of Citizens NRC was revised and updated.

Most interestingly, while the high court issued a stay and the Central government sought time to take a decision, the Assam government also told the court that it was against delimitation on the basis of the 2001 Census. Though the Delimitation Commission got the court stay order vacated by the Supreme Court last month, the Union government8217;s decision to keep the process on hold has brought something of a respite from confrontation to Assam, a state that has been in prolonged trouble because of as many as six communities demanding inclusion in the Scheduled Tribes list.

In Manipur, if delimitation had come into force, the number of constituencies in the hill districts of Manipur would have gone up by three and become 23, while the number of seats in the valley would be reduced from 40 to 37. Forty assembly constituencies of Manipur are in the four valley districts and the remaining 20 are in the five hill districts. The constituencies in the hills are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. Moreover, if three constituencies in the valley were shifted to the hill districts, it would mean converting three general segments into reserved seats.

This would have also changed the political equations between tribals and non-tribals. But even as the numerically strong lobby backed by the Ibobi Singh government succeeded in halting the delimitation process, it has only caused more agitation in the hill districts of Manipur.

The hill areas of Manipur have already erupted in protest, with the Movement for Tribal People8217;s Rights, a conglomerate of several tribal groups, announcing its resolve to oppose any move to stop the delimitation process. The influential United Naga Council UNC and Kuki Inpi of Manipur have always been in favour of changing the structure of assembly and parliamentary constituencies.

In Arunachal Pradesh, it is more an inter-tribal problem, with those opposed to the process claiming that huge chunks of territory along the China border go under-represented and in turn affect the security of the state and the country. It is the Nyishi tribe that has been the most vocal against delimitation, anticipating the loss of at least three assembly seats if the draft proposals of the Delimitation Commission go through. Representatives from Arunachal Pradesh also hold that the Census of 2001 was faulty as it took into account a huge floating population. At least one memorandum submitted to the Delimitation Commission said that 3,92,810 people who were not 8220;indigenous8221; to the state were included in the total population of 10,97,968, which itself has been seen as affecting the politics of the state.

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In Nagaland on the other hand, the state government8217;s stand has been that since the state enjoys special position under the Constitution, delimitation should not be enforced in the state until the number of assembly seats was increased from 60 to 80. But, like in Manipur, some tribes have demanded delimitation since that is likely to increase their strength in the state assembly. Some other tribes, like the Aos, have opposed delimitation for the same reason.

It is ultimately a game of numbers. And who does not want to have more members in the state assemblies and Parliament?

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