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Four major reasons for the US launching a war against Iraq under its new doctrine of strategic pre-emption are increasingly under question w...

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Four major reasons for the US launching a war against Iraq under its new doctrine of strategic pre-emption are increasingly under question within the United States. Three months after the war no evidence of weapons of mass destruction has surfaced. On the other hand, it transpires that the intelligence documents asserting that Iraq tried to obtain uranium for nuclear bombs from Niger, cited by President Bush, are now found to be forged. Secondly, after three months of military occupation of Iraq, no evidence of Saddam Husein8217;s linkage with Al Qaeda has been found. The third reason 8212; regime change 8212; relied heavily on the importance and authenticity of these two. The fourth, that the conquering forces would be greeted with flags and flowers when what they are actually facing are snipers8217; bullets.

Intelligence failures are an integral part of public policy. But its judgements, of necessity, are subjective, often ignoring truth in preference to preconceived notions stemming from past experience or in anticipation of the biases of policy makers. Inevitably, we have had our own failures. The worst, perhaps, was the one concerning the war in 1962. More recently, Kargil was an unqualified intelligence failure, and the jury about the events in Hilkaka and Surankote is still out. What we need to look at closely is the nature of failures so that future ones can be prevented.

Three well-established principles must be kept in mind in order to obtain the best results. First, the three pillars of intelligence: information, assessment and policy, must be kept segregated to ensure that the end product does not get tailored to the policy preferences of the leaders of the moment. This is where the US and the UK, in spite of their vast experience, seem to have faltered. Secondly, increasing specialisation demands multiple intelligence agencies to be nurtured in a modern state. This makes it all the more important to ensure that there is an overall head with direct access to the executive head of the country. Third, an overall assessment body is crucial at the national level, headed preferably by a non-intelligence person, and accountable for failures, to ensure that objectivity is maintained at all times, something lacking in our system.

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