In her own voice

In some way, Tuesday8217;s function marked a defining moment for Sonia. What she said must have been well prepared, rehearsed with party colleagues, but it was the elan with which she spoke that showed she had come into her own.

She effectively managed to distance herself and the Congress Party from Natwar Singh, who has been seen as a 10 Janpath loyalist. She left an impression that the grand old party had nothing to hide on Volcker. Her interventions were highly political 8212; describing her relationship with Natwar as a 8220;working8221; one, repudiating the impression that she had been soft on him, asserting 8220;100 per cent8221; support to the probe to get to the bottom of things, and wanting action against those found guilty.

With her statements, the probe and the decision to divest Natwar of the foreign affairs portfolio, she8217;s taken some of the sting out of an impending opposition attack in Parliament. And she has signaled to the Congress worker, hold your head high for the Congress is not involved.

When Sonia took over as Congress president, there was speculation about her ability to manage a coalition, for she did not have the personal relationships across the board required to manage political contradictions in India. Today she has evolved warm working relationships with the allies and she emerged as the natural leader of the coalition when it came to power. She struck alliances with regional parties in early 2004 when the Congress was considered down and out and its cadre demoralised. Today the allies trust her. It is she who is the arbiter between Laloo and Paswan and between the government and the Left. The Left lodged a protest with her over the divestment of BHEL and returned to the UPA Coordination Committee only when she wrote to them that the decision had been put in abeyance.

By harmonising relations between feuding allies, she has marked her own political space and acquired the image of a grand reconciler, a position no other leader 8212;except Vajpayee 8212; enjoys today.

The Left makes a distinction between her and the PM, even though she has been supportive of the government8217;s policies. She has tried to cultivate a left of centre image like Indira Gandhi did, with her advocacy of issues like rural employment guarantees and right to information and her recent endorsement of 8220;jholawalas8221; doing grassroot work.

She knows instinctively that to be acceptable she has to walk the middle path. While she emphasised on good relations with the US and economic reform, she also expressed the hope that differences with the Left, which has attacked the government on both counts, would be sorted out through consultation. Within hours, she met Left leaders and the CPM has decided not to press for a vote on Iran in Parliament which would have been highly embarrassing for the government.

The flip side is the challenge she continues to face. The Left has virtually given an ultimatum to the government on reversing its Iran vote in the IAEA. If the PM relents, he would be seen to be acting under the Left8217;s pressure and Indo-US diplomacy could come unstuck. If he does not, there will be serious trouble for the coalition 8212; unless the new US-EU proposal makes a vote in the IAEA unnecessary on November 24. The Left and SP are flaunting their 100-plus Lok Sabha MPs and plan to mobilise the support of other regional parties to keep up the pressure on the government.

Volcker and Iran are not the only issues that confront the government and the party today. They will face flak on Bihar, if the Supreme Court8217;s final judgement on the dissolution of the assembly is anything like its interim verdict, calling the decision 8220;unconstitutional8221;. As it is, the interim order brought the president, prime minister, home minister and Bihar governor in the firing line. The government may decide to make Buta Singh the fall guy to assuage public opinion, but it will do nothing for its image which has already taken a beating.

The Bihar elections, Sonia rightly said, pose no challenge to the UPA even if Laloo loses. A chastened Laloo would pose less trouble for the coalition in Delhi. But she has to worry about the party8217;s future in Bihar 8212; and UP. With incumbency likely to take its toll in the states where the Congress is in power today, and with no sign of the party reviving in the Ganga heartland, it is unlikely to hit the figure of 145 in the next elections.

Today Sonia is viewed as a long-distance runner in the Congress. Even her detractors concede she is the unifying force in the Congress. Her decision to decline prime ministership has virtually buried the issue of her foreign origins.

But she and the prime minister have managed what can only be called a holding operation. Neither the party nor the government has made an impact. There are hardly any signs of a vision in the government or a modernising thrust in the party. Nor any stirrings of a plan for the party8217;s revival. Sometimes coalition constraints 8212; in this case, the head of government does not have a free hand with the party and the leading party does not have a free hand with the allies 8212; become convenient excuses not to act.

The notable feature of the last 18 months is not the rise of the Congress but the decline of the BJP and that is something Sonia has to worry about.