Gonu gone, monsoon back on track

The cyclone Gonu that lashed Oman had a link to India. It had disrupted the monsoon current, halting it in its tracks just outside Bangalore.

The cyclone Gonu that lashed Oman had a link to India. It had disrupted the monsoon current, halting it in its tracks just outside Bangalore. The good news is that with the weakening of the storm, the monsoon has resumed its onward journey. Another indication of things returning to normal was the cool pleasant winds that began blowing in Delhi and most parts of northern India this morning.

May was an aberration. For northern India, the winds were coming from the wrong direction8212;the Easterlies from the Bay of Bengal rather than the Westerlies from the hot, dry plains of Pakistan. These winds in combination with the western disturbance would bring dust storm and cool showers every other day. The result was a cool, wet May.

Though the monsoon set in a few days ahead of schedule over Kerala, it was a weak current. Ten days later, when it had barely touched Karnataka, a storm started brewing in the East Central Arabian Sea.

For a while it looked it would come northwards, then it turned west-north-west and in a parabolic motion decided to hit Oman and Iran.

The entire monsoon flow got concentrated in this storm. Mumbai and Kolkata missed their date with the monsoon that usually arrives on June 10.

The wind pattern shifted. Instead of the moisture-laden Easterlies, the entire North India began getting the Westerlies, all the way from hot Pakistan and the desert of Rajasthan, intensifying the heat wave.

By June 6, the heat wave got intensified further, raising temperatures 4-5 degrees above normal in most part of North India.

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By June 7, Gonu dissipated. By June 9 and 10, the Arabian Sea flow started building up. The first to heave a sigh of relief was Bengal. Bangladesh saw the flip side of this: In three days, in some places around Chittagong, it rained as much as one foot.

This morning, the Easterlies penetrated Delhi, bringing the much-welcome cool breeze. According to met experts, there may be some thunder and dust storms. In addition, there is a likelihood of a western disturbance building up, that could bring thundershowers too. The weathermen are not sure on this one.

The restoration of the monsoon system means that it will hit Mumbai and Kolkata by this weekend. Though separated by hundreds of kilometers, the two metros are connected by the same arm, on the monsoon map of India.

The next question following this is when will Delhi get rain? For Delhi and western UP to get rain, another arm of monsoon has to get active. A system that originates in the Bay of Bengal and travels over Jharkhand, North Bihar, Orissa and UP and all the way upto Punjab and Haryana. Forecasters are not sure when that will happen. No signs as yet to show if this is on track. In other words, a delayed Mumbai monsoon does not mean a delayed Delhi monsoon.

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All conditions are favourable now. There is a 8216;heat low8217; concentrated over Pakistan, extending over Rajasthan and Delhi. It will act as an anchor for the monsoon trough, pulling it towards the plains of India. Padidan in Pakistan reached 52 degrees Celsius yesterday. Sriganganagar came in with 48 degrees.

So is an abnormal May and blistering June, sign of climate change? Forecasters rue short public memory. Such heat waves are common, they say. The 2003 was worse than this. Is the variability in the monsoon pattern an aberration? This too happens, they say. The monsoon is known to advance, halt and then gather pace.