Have you noticed how Mulayam Singh Yadav has fallen silent? Political circles are trying to figure out what the wily Yadav’s calculations are, a few months before the UP elections. The Congress made a historic turnaround in Shimla, expressing its willingness to go for a coalition at the Centre. But ‘Netaji’, who had been pressing for an alliance with that party, remained unmoved. Soon after Ajit Singh left the Government and efforts were on to bring down the Mayawati ministry, both Mulayam and Amar Singh had said that Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin was no longer a relevant issue. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad upped the ante on Ayodhya and brought Kashi and Mathura centrestage again. But the man who has been hailed as a messiah of the Muslims and who has crafted his politics around the Ayodhya issue during the last decade didn’t utter a word. Mayawati has been a red rag to Mulayam. But after she slapped 140-odd cases against him, he gives the appearance of having been gagged. A BSP leader couldn’t help remarking that ‘‘it’s almost as if there is a truce between the two.’’ The court has stayed Mulayam’s arrest and it is possible that he may not want to do anything to precipitate matters, lest it provokes Mayawati to try to get the stay vacated. At least that is how BSP circles see his decision to maintain a low profile though there was a cycle rally in Lucknow against the Mayawati government some weeks ago. Mulayam may simply be in an introspective mood. Or just unclear about the stand to take. It now transpires that he plans to hold a ‘Chintan Baithak’, the SP’s very own ‘manthan shivir’ to arrive at some clarity on these issues. It will be held in Bhopal on July 26 and will be attended by a select group of SP leaders. The invitations have been sent out by Ram Gopal Yadav, Mulayam’s relative and party MP, to deliberate on the SP’s poll strategy. The SP leaders offer different explanations for their leader withdrawing into a shell. Says Salim Sherwani, MP, who has often acted as a go-between for Mulayam, Sonia Gandhi and Ajit Singh: ‘‘This (Shimla) is only the beginning. If Mulayam Singh, Ajit Singh, Kalyan Singh and the Congress get their act together in UP, it will be a formidable combination.’’ Shahid Siddiqui, also an MP and party general secretary, strikes a different note. ‘‘We want to defeat the BJP and are ready to make any sacrifices but we feel that any pre-poll alliance with the Congress will not benefit the secular forces in UP as the Congress has been wiped out there. Our politics cannot be held hostage to some alliance in the future.’’ As for a national alliance, it would be meaningless if it excluded UP. Undoubtedly UP holds the key to Mulayam Singh’s mood. Party sources, who do not want to be named, say that he is quiet because he has given up the idea of toppling the UP government. He does not think the Congress is sincere about lending him support. Nor does he believe that a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, in UP or at the national level, is practical. He reportedly said as much at the party’s working committee recently in Delhi. Having won 10 Lok Sabha seats last time in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress would demand no less than 25 and Mulayam is not prepared to concede this number. The whole process, he feels, would only confuse his party workers. He is therefore getting ready to ‘‘fight the BJP alone’’. The SP had decided at its Delhi meeting that it would not go in for any pre-poll alliance at any level, SP sources say. ‘‘It is not our fault if the media did not project this.’’ Mulayam’s attitude towards Mayawati could be traced to this. There is little point in riling her at this stage if the party is now going to concentrate on building up its own strength for the next electoral round instead of trying to pull her down. As for his lack of response to Ayodhya-related issues, the SP chief has for some time tried to live down his ‘Maulana Mulayam’ image — as Chief Minister he had vowed not to let even a bird enter Ayodhya. He has made a tactical shift because he realises that he can win elections only by expanding his base among the Hindus and not by antagonising them. The more he widens his support base among them, the more the Muslims will stand by his side instead of shifting to the Congress. That is why, the SP has only talked about the VHP ‘‘undermining’’ Lord Ram’s name and ‘‘misusing’’ the Shankaracharya for political ends. It’s interesting that the Left circles see Mulayam’s enigmatic silence as nothing but positioning on his part. ‘‘He has not reacted negatively to Shimla. That in itself is positive,’’ said a senior CPM leader.
