Falun Gong8217;s turn

The Tibetan challenge is not necessarily the worst nightmare for Beijing this summer. Potential spectacular actions by the religious cult, Falun Gong, during the Beijing Games would be even more troublesome.

Probably the most organised and richest of the Chinese dissident groups, the Falun Gong has shown extraordinary capacity to surprise Beijing. Conscious of the threat, China has apparently begun a sweeping pre-emptive crackdown against the cult. Besides a number of arrests, it has offered cash rewards to citizens who can turn in Falun Gong followers. Whichever way one looks at the Tibetan revolt, Beijing8217;s awful political summer might only have just begun.

Nepal8217;s Tibet heat

As the political heat from the Lhasa revolt touches the neighbouring subcontinent, India has enough room to finesse its complex policy towards Tibet. New Delhi carefully avoids contesting Chinese sovereignty over Tibet while continuing to host the Dalai Lama and empathise with his demands for autonomy.

Nepal, however, is far more vulnerable to Chinese pressures on Tibet. Many recent reports from Nepal have indicated the active participation of officials from the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu and its security agencies from across the border in the crackdown over the Tibetan protestors.Kathmandu, much like New Delhi, was duty-bound to protect the Chinese embassy from protestors and preventing cross-border movement during a tense period for Beijing in Tibet.

Some in New Delhi would look askance at Kathmandu8217;s willingness to let the Chinese security officials play a direct role in curbing the protestors. Nepalese politicians, who are so sensitive about sovereignty issues vis-a-vis India, seem a lot more willing to cut slack for China.

Taiwan elections

After a bad week in Tibet, China is eagerly looking forward to some good news from the presidential elections in Taiwan this week. As in Tibet, the unfinished task of national unification is China8217;s principal problem with Taiwan.

Beijing was pleased to see the stinging defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan8217;s parliamentary elections in January. The DPP led by President Chen Shu-bian has been a thorn in the flesh of the Chinese Communist Party by queering the pitch for Taiwanese independence.

The DPP8217;s presidential candidate Frank Hsieh is trailing well behind Ma Ying-Jeou of the Kuomintang party, which supports the principle of 8216;one China8217; and is in favour of ending Chen8217;s confrontation with mainland China. DPP8217;s Hsieh warned that under KMT8217;s Ma, Taiwan would become the next Tibet. Ma, in turn, condemned the Chinese use of force in Tibet 8212; but argued that Taiwan is not Tibet.

Although the Tibetan revolt has become an issue in the Taiwan elections, it is unlikely to weaken the current tide in favour of Ma and alter the deep popular frustration with the DPP8217;s economic performance. Beijing, however, will keep its fingers crossed about the outcome of the provocative referendum on whether Taiwan should seek UN membership that will take place along with the presidential polls on Saturday.

While there is no chance that Taiwan will ever get UN membership in the teeth of opposition from Beijing, a positive vote on the referendum might reinforce the separate identity of Taiwan.

The writer is professor at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohanntu.edu.sg