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This is an archive article published on February 11, 2008

Downside of globalisation will be felt by all: IMF boss Kahn

Explaining the reasons for the current global economic turbulence...

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Explaining the reasons for the current global economic turbulence, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said today that the financial community had been quite late in gauging the sub-prime dangers. Now that the US Fed has been trying to avoid a depression by resorting to repeated rate cuts, Kahn said, “Rate cuts by the central banks will only have a temporary effect.”

Kahn said that the slowdown will last for some time in the US and, in turn, affect the emerging economies as well, making it clear that if the fruits of globalisation are enjoyed by all, then the downside of it too will be felt by everyone. Refuting the decoupling theory, Kahn said, “While the growth in emerging economies will balance the slowdown, it will be fallacy to think that they will not be hit at all.” With China growing by 10 per cent and India by over 8 per cent, the global slowdown will be partially balanced, he said.

“Earlier, the developed economies had only trade links with emerging economies but today there are financial links as well. India has received huge capital inflows, so when financial and real sectors, emerging and developed economies are linked and there is a crisis, somewhere there are risks of capital outflows,” he said.

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Kahn said that the effects of the global financial crisis are serious and the IMF has reduced the forecast for global growth to 4.1 per cent from 4.9 per cent. Speaking about the ways to mitigate the crisis, he said that countries with lower fiscal deficits should prepare some headroom to maintain demand. For instance, “If there is high demand in China, it can in turn generate employment and raise consumption levels and boost the global economy,” he added.

With RBI governor Y V Reddy sitting beside him, Kahn said that central banks are doing well to maintain liquidity. However, they should focus on providing monetary policy support to restore investors’ confidence in the markets. He also emphasised the need for more transparency and consistent auditing practices by banks.

Emerging economies should also learn from the regulatory and supervisory lapses that occurred in the US, he pointed out. The IMF chief said that the Fund is undergoing an overhaul as it is shifting its focus from regulating exchange rates to proactively participating as an advisor on policy making. The IMF would not only like G-7 countries to participate in policy decisions but all its members to come on board, he said.

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