Doors open again, after 146;89

While caste has always been a big part of our politics, the apogee of caste-based vote banks was the decade from 1989 to 1999. That was when, following an earlier inflection point Mandal, parties based exclusively on caste stormed the bastilles of various states and forced a change at the Centre. Along with the rise of regionalism, this wave saw one-party rule give way to coalition government in Delhi.

From the 2000 general elections, however, it should have been obvious to anyone not rigidly wedded to the 8217;90s-era caste combination arithmetic that such political strategies had plateaued. By the 2002 UP elections, the BSP had already moved on from pure Dalit enfranchisement politics to a strategy of broad-basing by putting up a number of upper caste candidates. And what has wrong-footed so many pundits in 2007 pun intended is really only the next logical step of that strategy: a clearly enunciated pre-poll arrangement of broad-basing and a significant number of upper caste and other non-dalit candidates.

Similarly, last year Bihar8217;s electorate signalled a shift in its priorities. After fifteen years of backing a party almost solely on account of its OBC credentials 8212; and some would say at the cost of development 8212; the people of Bihar were ready to move on. Although anti-incumbency and caste combinations also played a vital role in Nitish Kumar8217;s winning formula, the USP was broad-basing on the plank of development for all.

In yet another success story of the post-2000 period, Naveen Patnaik has not only defied anti-incumbency in Orissa, but has significantly increased the BJD8217;s vote share in the state. Admittedly, Orissa has never been a cauldron of caste politics, but once again the key has been to cobble together a broad support base that was then strengthened through good governance and development.

The big question is whether these successful examples of broad-basing are relevant only at the level of individual states or whether the time is opportune for the building of a national level umbrella party of the kind that the Congress used to be and the BJP didn8217;t quite become. There are indications that Mayawati8217;s out-of-the-box thinking will not be limited to Uttar Pradesh.

She may well have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build a formidable, broad-based national party, but it will take more than just extending the mainly dalit-brahmin combination to other states. For starters, she will need to demonstrate both maturity and dexterity to hold this combination together. Next, she will need to deliver good governance to have a hope of broadening the BSP8217;s appeal to other constituents and regions. And finally, she will need to raise herself above the din of everyday politics to achieve a statesmanlike persona 8212; imagine a Nehru or a Vajpayee 8212; to be acceptable to a broad enough spectrum of voters.

None of these are easy to achieve. And particularly not for a street fighter who has cut her teeth on adversarial caste politics. But she has already demonstrated a greater ability to adapt than any of her contemporaries. Consider all the Yadav leaders and any number of India8217;s political scions who have felt compelled to limit themselves to rallying the faithful to the almost complete exclusion of trying to broaden their appeal. Even the two major national parties did not or could not adapt 8212; the BJP trapped by its own past in Uttar Pradesh and the Congress seemingly unaware that its campaign for inclusivity applies as much to politics as to economics.

There is no guarantee that Mayawati will succeed in transforming the BSP into a broad-based national party. In fact the odds are against it. Maybe she won8217;t even attempt it, tempering her ambition to just extending UP8217;s new caste arithmetic to a few other states. Even that would be enough to give sleepless nights to most politicians in those states and perhaps even enough to achieve her prime ministerial ambitions as part of a coalition. But whatever path she chooses, it is clear that she has opened the door to tantalising new prospects for national politics as we have known it since 1989.

Will her successful gambit in Uttar Pradesh nudge others to think beyond their established positions? Will a Sharad Yadav now also seek reservations based on economic grounds? Will a Rahul Gandhi drop his compartmentalised messages to various communities and set his sights higher? Will a Rajnath Singh steer the BJP into finally becoming the national umbrella party that many of its members have long hoped for? Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, it is worth reflecting on a few characteristics of inflection points. To cite Andy Grove, an inflection point is 8220;an event that changes the way we think and act 8212; which can be deadly when not attended to 8212; but it creates opportunities for players who are adept at operating in the new way8221;.

The writer, a Rajya Sabha member, belongs to the Biju Janata Dal