Congress146;s Coalition Dharam

The advantage goes to its main adversary, the BJP, which has for long been trying to get a foothold in states south of the Vindhyas but without success. Moreover, the BJP has weaned away an ally from the adversary camp, and this will have an impact on its existing partners who had begun to distance themselves from the party after its 2004 defeat in the general elections.

The Congress8217;s other allies are also becoming assertive. There was the spectacle recently of TRS chief Chandra Shekhar Rao touching Uma Bharati8217;s feet. This set off alarm bells in the Congress. The Telengana leader was obviously signalling his unhappiness with the UPA. 8220;Even if he was indulging in pressure politics, we will have to take cognizance of it. We cannot just let it go, because it was our ally touching the feet of someone like Uma Bharati,8221; a senior Congress leader said.

The JMM has also been getting increasingly restive and Shibu Soren, who has been waiting in the wings to be reinducted in the Union Cabinet for the last so many months, has conveyed his dissatisfaction in no uncertain terms to the powers that be. Faced as it is with belligerent allies 8212; with the Left shooting off a letter to the prime minister on Iran 8212; the Congress does not want to take chances. The cabinet expansion was originally slated to take place after US President George W. Bush8217;s visit, because given Iran and the nuclear pact, the prime minister would have liked to keep the external affairs portfolio with himself till March. But now after Karnataka, it is felt that the expansion must be hastened to keep the likes of Shibu Soren from straying 8212; or at least threatening to.

As things have turned out, the Congress has not been able to keep its government in the saddle in Bangalore, though it had 64 MLAs against 51 of the JDS. It made the mistake of giving in too much to Gowda8217;s demands initially, after the coalition government was formed in Bangalore. Thereafter a reaction set in that he was riding roughshod.

There are two groups in the Congress. One has not been averse to forcing a mid-term poll. There are many leaders in Karnataka who lost in the last elections, and would like an opportunity to bounce back if polls are held again. They have argued that the Congress can come back to power, along with S. Siddharamaiah, Gowda8217;s erstwhile lieutenant who tied up with the Congress in the recent district elections. Siddharamiah represents the powerful OBC Kuruba community, and they add up to 5 per cent of the state8217;s population. These leaders see an OBC-Muslim-dalit votebank, which could be a powerful electoral combination.

It is significant that while the Congress gave the maximum importance to Karnataka in the recent reconstitution of the Working Committee, taking as many as six members from the state, there was no Lingayat or a Vokkaliga among them though the Lingayats have traditionally supported the Congress.

Gowda managed to lull the Congress into complacency and its leaders saw his statements and actions as nothing but pressure politics. That is why no senior leader met him when he was in Delhi in January. He on his part was trying to project the impression that he tried till the last to save the coalition from cracking. After he met Sonia Gandhi, the Congress even agreed to his four-point demand that the Maharashtra model be replicated in Karnataka. This included the JDS being given certain high profile ministries like irrigation and home and certain boards and corporations, and the constitution of a coordination committee. He promised to dissuade JDS MLAs from going with the BJP, and assured the Congress that he would secure from each of them a letter to this effect. But of course, that was not to be because that was not part of the plan that had been put in place.

8220;It was a clear case of milibhagat collusion between father and son,8221; said an angry Congress leader over the weekend. BJP leaders admit privately that the operation had been mounted with Deve Gowda8217;s concurrence. He had met with senior BJP leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and Rajnath Singh when he was in Delhi in January.

From the way events played out, it became clear to the Congress that Gowda had been stringing them along. Even as he assured the Congress that he would dissuade the JDS MLAs, he wrote to the AICC general secretary in charge of Karnataka, A.K. Antony, that he should persuade Dharam Singh to resign. The Congress refused. Suddenly the writing on the wall became clear.

As if to hit back, Congress MLAs created a din in the assembly, and Dharam Singh did not move the confidence motion in a tactic that was quite unprecedented. It did nothing for the Congress8217;s image, gave it no advantage whatsoever, for the arithmetic had been clear. Even on Friday night, the Congress was speaking in two voices, with Antony saying one thing and Dharam Singh digging in his heels.

The Congress moved in to save the situation when Sonia Gandhi roped in Pranab Mukherjee but by then it was too late. Clearly the JDS had got the better of the Congress. The Congress has lost one more state and one that has traditionally been its bastion, and has given the BJP power on a platter.

The Congress should go through the story of its eviction from power in Karnataka. It is a story strewn with lessons.